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Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Why Arizona is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions for MLB Saturday.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will face the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Chase Field on Saturday, commencing at 7:15 PM ET.
The Diamondbacks will send Merrill Kelly (1-3, 9.95 ERA) to the mound, up against Clay Holmes (4-2, 1.69 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's Mets vs. Diamondbacks matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLB game between the Mets and Diamondbacks, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Diamondbacks a 51% chance of beating the Mets.
According to our model, the Diamondbacks (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 57% chance of going over.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds [5/9/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+146) | +1.5 (-170) |
| Moneyline | -108 | -108 |
| Total | o9.5 (-108) | u9.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets -1.5 | +146 |
| Moneyline | Diamondbacks | -108 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | -108 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB game between the Diamondbacks and Mets at Chase Field is scheduled to commence at 7:15 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
- Date: Saturday, May 9, 2026
- Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15PM PT
- Venue: Chase Field
Conclusion
We predict the Diamondbacks, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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