Liberty vs. Mystics prediction: Why New York is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [5/10/2026]

The Washington Mystics will face the favored New York Liberty in WNBA action at CareFirst Arena on Sunday, beginning at 3:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner of the Liberty vs. Mystics game.

The Mystics, with the likes of Kiki Iriafen, Sonia Citron and Shakira Austin, are set to take on the Liberty, whose lineup includes Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Han Xu.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Mystics prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Mystics, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Liberty an 85% chance of beating the Mystics.

According to our model, the Liberty (-5.5) have a 67% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 165.5 points has a 65% chance of staying under.

Liberty vs. Mystics odds

We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Mystics
Spread	-5.5 (-108)	+5.5 (-105)
Moneyline	-230	+200
Total	o165.5 (-104)	u165.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Mystics picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Liberty -5.5	-108
Moneyline	Liberty	-230
Total	Under 165.5	-110

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Liberty -5.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Mystics player props

WNBA prop bets are a common way to wager on Sunday's New York vs. Washington matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at CareFirst Arena.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 22 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists, while Kiki Iriafen is projected to have 16 points, 11 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mystics.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	22	7	3	1	43
Jonquel Jones	15	8	3	2	35
Han Xu	11	4	1	0	21
Betnijah Laney	10	3	3	1	22
Marine Johannes	8	3	2	2	19

Mystics prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mystics:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kiki Iriafen	16	11	2	0	37
Sonia Citron	15	4	2	2	29
Shakira Austin	14	8	2	0	34
Lauren Betts	13	7	3	0	30
Georgia Amoore	11	3	3	1	24

Liberty vs. Mystics game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Mystics and Liberty at CareFirst Arena is scheduled to begin at 3:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics
• Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
• Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
• Venue: CareFirst Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with an 85% win probability, will likely beat the Mystics in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.