New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds, NFL Picks - Week 17 [2023]

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds, NFL Picks - Week 17 [2023]

The Buffalo Bills will face the New England Patriots in NFL Week 17 action at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 1:00PM ET.'s full betting preview for this week's Patriots vs. Bills matchup includes the latest betting odds, as well as our predictions and picks for the game.

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction: Who Will Win, Cover the Spread

We have used advanced machine learning and data analysis to simulate the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Bills 10,000 times, in line with our coverage of NFL predictions.

Our leading predictive analytics model gives the Bills a 91% chance of beating the Patriots in Week 17 of the NFL season, and our predicted final score has the Bills winning 26-13.

According to our model, the Patriots (+13.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 40.5-point Over/Under has a 53% chance of going under.

Today's New England vs. Buffalo betting preview is brought to you by Bet365, which has an awesome Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets offer for new customers.

Patriots vs. Bills Odds

We have sourced the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type Patriots Bills
Spread +13.5 (-115) -13.5 (-105)
Moneyline +590 -800
Total o40.5 (-105) u40.5 (-115)
  • The Bills are currently -13.5 favorites against the Patriots, with -105 at FanDuel Sportsbook the best odds currently available.
  • For the underdog Patriots (+13.5) to cover the spread, FanDuel also has the best odds currently on the market at -115.
  • BetMGM Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Bills at -800, which means you can risk $800 to win $100 for a total payout of $900 if they get the W.
  • Meanwhile, FanDuel currently has the best moneyline odds for the Patriots at +590, where you can bet $100 to profit $590, earning a total payout of $690 if they win.
  • The Over/Under for total points scored sits at 40.5 with FanDuel, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -105, as well as the best odds for the Under at -115.

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

As always, check out all the online sportsbooks available in your state for the best NFL odds and lines.

Patriots vs. Bills Picks

By comparing our predictions to the odds listed above, we have found the best betting picks to make on this game:

Bet Type Our Pick Best Odds
Spread Patriots +13.5 -115
Moneyline Bills -800
Total Under 40.5 -115


Dimers' NFL best bets are based on world-class simulations and gambling intelligence to bring you the best possible plays every time.

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Patriots vs. Bills TD Scorers

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs. Bills?

According to our model, Buffalo's Josh Allen is most likely to score the first touchdown in Patriots vs. Bills.

Our projections give Allen a 15.1% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills QB is a 53.6% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

New England Patriots

Player First TD Probability
Ezekiel Elliott 10.1%
Hunter Henry 6.9%
Demario Douglas 3.9%
DeVante Parker 3.7%
Bailey Zappe 3.4%

Buffalo Bills

Player First TD Probability
Josh Allen 15.1%
James Cook 13.7%
Stefon Diggs 7.9%
Gabe Davis 7.0%
Dalton Kincaid 5.9%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

New England Patriots

Player Anytime TD Probability
Ezekiel Elliott 42.2%
Hunter Henry 29.7%
Demario Douglas 18.3%
DeVante Parker 17.3%
Bailey Zappe 15.5%

Buffalo Bills

Player Anytime TD Probability
Josh Allen 53.6%
James Cook 49.4%
Stefon Diggs 31.9%
Gabe Davis 29.2%
Dalton Kincaid 25.2%

Patriots vs Bills Player Props

Here, you will find detailed projections for all of the key offensive players from the Patriots and Bills, including passing, rushing and receiving yards.

Patriots vs. Bills Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Bailey Zappe is projected for 210 passing yards, while the Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 234 yards.

Player Proj. Pass Yards
Bailey Zappe (NE) 210 yds
Josh Allen (BUF) 234 yds

Patriots Rushing

Player Proj. Rush Yards
Ezekiel Elliott 51 yds
Kevin Harris 20 yds
Bailey Zappe 10 yds

Bills Rushing

Player Proj. Rush Yards
James Cook 59 yds
Latavius Murray 28 yds
Josh Allen 18 yds

Patriots Receiving

Player Proj. Rec. Yards
Demario Douglas 44 yds
DeVante Parker 42 yds
Hunter Henry 29 yds
JuJu Smith-Schuster 22 yds
Ezekiel Elliott 22 yds

Bills Receiving

Player Proj. Rec. Yards
Stefon Diggs 81 yds
Dalton Kincaid 37 yds
Gabe Davis 32 yds
James Cook 22 yds
Khalil Shakir 20 yds

Don't forget, our model updates frequently, so refresh this article for the latest betting analysis before the Patriots vs. Bills on Sunday December 31, 2023.

Patriots vs. Bills Game Information

The NFL Week 17 action between the Bills and Patriots at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00PM ET.


Our full coverage of Patriots vs. Bills includes pregame predictions, betting picks, and live win probabilities.

How to Bet on Patriots vs. Bills

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These fees help us keep Dimers free for all sports fans. So, if you like what you see, support us by joining one of our trusted sports betting partners below, including DraftKings Sportsbook, where you get $200 in bonus bets for signing up and bettting $5 on New England vs. Buffalo.


This preview article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on Patriots vs. Bills Week 14 clash, and automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting. Human editing and quality control are performed to ensure the content meets our editorial guidelines.

Dimers' picks and predictions are made thanks to 10,000 simulations per game, using reliable and up-to-date data sources and analytical methods. While our Patriots vs. Bills predictions can help you make informed decisions, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More on NFL

Stay updated with the most recent NFL news and our data-led NFL picks and parlays all season long. Plus, our Super Bowl odds give you the latest projections and the best available odds on the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC, and each division.

Ryan Leaver
Senior Sports and Sports Betting Editor

Ryan Leaver has long been entrenched in the world of sports and sports betting, now specializing in the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. His passion shines through in his detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles for both the NBA and NFL, along with his sharp prop bets for college football and insightful best bets for college basketball. Ryan’s expertise also extends to soccer, where he frequently offers practical betting tips and highlights the bets of the day. 

Known for his keen eye for valuable betting promos, Ryan adeptly guides bettors toward opportunities that enhance their wagering experiences. Collaborating often with DimersBOT, his articles are meticulously researched and offer savvy betting advice, making him a trusted source for sports bettors.

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