NCAA March Madness Betting Picks - Saturday April 2, 2022

 

Very rarely does a game this late in the Tournament come down to a single factor, but this one does. If both teams were playing at full strength then this would be close to a coin flip, but Justin Moore just tore his Achilles and the Wildcats will be without one of their top scorers. Basically, we need to decide just how important that will be. And, while I picked Kansas as my outright winner before the Tournament began, I actually like Villanova here. 

 

Moore and his 14+ PPG are obviously important, but this team runs through Gillespie on the outside and Samuel down low, which means they'll still be able to find points. Villanova doesn't go too deep on the bench this season, but they have talent to fill gaps and Jay Wright is one of the best coaches (excluding recruiting from the equation) in CBB. With almost a full week to adjust, I think Villanova will be just fine.

As for Kansas, they simply haven't been all that impressive so far. They've yet to face a team that anyone thought could win the Tournament (While Nova suffocated a great Houston team in the Elite 8), and Agbaji just hasn't looked quite good enough to take over games in the way they need to win it all.

 

Nova will continue to be efficient on offense and play tough defense, which will keep this game close and give the Wildcats a chance to win. Oh, and 'Nova is on pace to break the team record for Free Throw Percentage in a season, which tends to be an important factor in March. this game should be close, I'll take the 4.5 points.

Tonight, Duke and North Carolina will meet in an NCAA tournament game for the first time ever. We all know about the historic rivalry between the two squads, and this game should bring a ton of fireworks. We are going to look at the total for this matchup, as both teams have been clicking offensively and we believe over 151 points is a great spot.

Duke has been operating at an extremely high rate the past three games, with an effective field goal clip of 59.5%. This is on part because of the young guards, who have been maturing game by game, and they’ll be up to the task of matching the pace of the UNC guards. Caleb Love and RJ Davis love to push the pace for UNC, and we expect Trevor Keels and Wendell Moore to return the favor. Overs are 12-6 combined this year on a neutral floor, and a big part of that is due to both teams being in the top quadrant of the country in pace.

This line has been attractive since it opened because historically when these two teams play, it goes over. This is shown in their last 10 matchups, as the over 151 would’ve hit 7/10 times, and in their last 6 matchups the over has hit by an average of 20 points. On top of this, Duke overs have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games, while UNC overs have gone 6-0 in their last 6 games against winning teams.

We mentioned the guards, but players like Paolo Banchero and Armando Bacot will create problems for the opposition. Look for both of these teams to start hot and not take their foot off the pedal until the final buzzer.

PICK: Total points OVER 151 (-110)

DimersBOT probability: 49%