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NBA First Basket Predictions for Game 1 Include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Pascal Siakam [6/5/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Our expert analysis on Thursday's NBA first basket market.
This Thursday, June 5th, it's time for an action-packed day of NBA Finals basketball, with the Pacers facing the Thunder Game 1 of the 2025 Finals at 8:30PM ET.
After analyzing Thursday's NBA simulations this morning (see Dimers Pro for full access), our team of data analysts have produced their best first basket bet of the day.
Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20BASKETBALL Get Dimers Pro Additionally, this article reveals the NBA players our predictive analytics model has projected to have the greatest chance of scoring the first basket in Thursday's lone game.
Let's dive into today's NBA first basket news and updates.
NBA Players to Watch Today
Based on the most recent latest NBA Injury Report, Thursday's NBA Finals Game 1 is set to showcase big names such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Pascal Siakam and Chet Holmgren, each with a high probability of scoring the first basket in tonight's matchup.
Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight? [NBA Cheat Sheet for June 5, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket in Thursday's clash is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 14.4%.
With Game 1 of the NBA Finals between OKC and Indiana on the slate for tonight, DimersBOT has provided the probabilities for each of the 10 projected starters to score first:
| Player (Team) | First Basket Probability |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) | 14.4% |
| Pascal Siakam (Pacers) | 14.1% |
| Chet Holmgren (Thunder) | 10.9% |
| Jalen Williams (Thunder) | 10.8% |
| Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) | 10.8% |
| Myles Turner (Pacers) | 9.5% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder) | 9.0% |
| Aaron Nesmith (Pacers) | 8.7% |
| Andrew Nembhard (Pacers) | 7.0% |
| Luguentz Dort (Thunder) | 4.8% |
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely, the players with the next highest likelihood of scoring the first basket today are Pascal Siakam at 14.1% and Chet Holmgren at 10.9%.
Dimers Pro Pick of the Day: NBA First Basket [NBA Finals Game 1]
Having simulated the result of today's Pacers vs. Thunder Game 1, our predictive model has found the best NBA first basket betting pick for Thursday.
For full access to our comprehensive analysis and top picks, subscribe to Dimers Pro.
Aaron Nesmith To Score First Basket
- Odds: +1500
- Edge: 2.4%
- Probability: 8.7%
- Matchup: Pacers vs. Thunder (8:30PM ET)
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Game 1 between the Pacers and Thunder. The bet is on Aaron Nesmith (IND) at odds of +1500 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.4% according to our analysis.
Closer Look at Today's First Basket Props
NBA first basket props have become one of the more popular betting options for basketball bettors. By using Thursday's data-driven NBA predictions, you can gain an advantage over everyone else.
For today's full list of NBA Finals prop picks, join Dimers Pro. We give you the tools and information to succeed with hundreds of data-driven bets across thousands of games. Sign up now to join the community!
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Tonight's NBA First Basket Picks: June 5, 2025
This NBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on NBA first basket picks for June 5, 2025. Automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting, while human editing and quality control ensure the content meets our editorial standards.
All of Dimers' NBA first basket picks for Thursday, June 5, are based on thousands of data-driven game simulations, giving you reliable and accurate NBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.
If you plan to use today's NBA first basket picks for sports betting, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Understanding Betting Edge
At Dimers, an "edge" in betting signifies our belief that an event's probability is higher than the best available NBA odds suggest. A higher betting edge indicates a greater likelihood of success. However, it's essential to remember that no bet is guaranteed, and responsible gambling practices are crucial for long-term success.
More About NBA
This article is part of our NBA player props and NBA best bets series.
For more NBA betting content, we have NBA trends for every game, as well as daily NBA betting news and the latest NBA title odds and predictions.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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