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NBA First Basket Predictions for Game 3 Include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Pascal Siakam [6/11/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Our expert analysis on Wednesday's NBA first basket market.
This Wednesday, June 11th, we have another big day of professional hoops upon us, with the Thunder taking on the Pacers Game 3 of the 2025 Finals at 8:30PM ET.
After examining Wednesday's NBA simulation results early this morning (see Dimers Pro for full access), our data analysts have revealed their best first basket bet of the day.
Get 20% off Dimers Pro with code 20BASKETBALL Get Dimers Pro Additionally, this article reveals the NBA players our predictive analytics model has selected as having the highest probability of scoring the first basket in Wednesday's lone game.
Let's dive into today's NBA first basket news and updates.
NBA Players to Watch Today
Based on the most recent latest NBA Injury Report, Wednesday's NBA Finals Game 3 is set to feature star players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Pascal Siakam and Chet Holmgren, each with a high probability of scoring the first basket in tonight's matchup.
Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight? [NBA Cheat Sheet for June 11, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket in Wednesday's clash is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 17.0%.
With Game 3 of the NBA Finals between OKC and Indiana set to go down tonight, here are the probabilities for each of the 10 expected starters to score first:
| Player (Team) | First Basket Probability |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) | 17.0% |
| Pascal Siakam (Pacers) | 13.6% |
| Chet Holmgren (Thunder) | 11.6% |
| Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) | 11.4% |
| Jalen Williams (Thunder) | 11.3% |
| Myles Turner (Pacers) | 9.7% |
| Aaron Nesmith (Pacers) | 8.4% |
| Andrew Nembhard (Pacers) | 6.9% |
| Luguentz Dort (Thunder) | 5.5% |
| Cason Wallace (Thunder) | 4.7% |
Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely, the players with the next highest likelihood of cashing your first basket bets are Pascal Siakam at 13.6% and Chet Holmgren at 11.6%.
Dimers Pro Pick of the Day: NBA First Basket [NBA Finals Game 3]
Having simulated the result of today's Thunder vs. Pacers Game 3, our leading predictive analytics model has discovered the best NBA first basket betting pick for Wednesday.
For full access to our comprehensive analysis and top picks, subscribe to Dimers Pro.
Tyrese Haliburton To Score First Basket
- Odds: +1100
- Edge: 3.1%
- Probability: 11.4%
- Game: Thunder vs. Pacers (8:30PM ET)
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for Game 3 between the Thunder and Pacers. The bet is on Tyrese Haliburton (IND) at odds of +1100 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 3.1% according to our analysis.
Our model not only highlights Haliburton for his 3.1% betting edge but also ranks him among the top five most first basket likely scorers for today's Thunder vs. Pacers game, as seen in the preceding list.
Closer Look at Today's First Basket Props
NBA first basket props have become one of the more popular betting options for basketball bettors. By using Wednesday's data-driven NBA predictions, you can gain an advantage over everyone else.
For today's full list of NBA Finals prop picks, join Dimers Pro. We give you the tools and information to succeed with hundreds of data-driven bets across thousands of games. Sign up now to join the community!
Get All Four First Basket Picks for Wednesday Get Dimers Pro NBA News, Schedule Alerts and Updated Odds
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Today's NBA First Basket Picks: June 11, 2025
This NBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on NBA first basket picks for June 11, 2025. Automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting, while human editing and quality control ensure the content meets our editorial standards.
All of Dimers' NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, June 11, are generated after thousands of data-driven game simulations, providing reliable and accurate NBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.
If you plan to use today's NBA first basket predictions for your personal gambling, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Understanding Betting Edge
The "edge" at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.
Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.
More About NBA
This article is part of our NBA player props and NBA best bets series.
For more NBA betting content, we have NBA trends for every game, as well as daily NBA betting news and the latest NBA title odds and predictions.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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