NBA First Basket Picks and Parlay: Expert analysis for NBA betting on Wednesday, November 19

Betting on NBA First Basket scorers has become one of the most exciting props in NBA betting. A high-risk, high-reward market, predicting the first basket can deliver massive value—especially when combining multiple selections into a parlay or Round Robins.

Each day throughout the NBA season, the Dimers model simulates every matchup 10,000 times to craft our NBA Predictions, accounting for pace, shot distribution, tip-off win rates, defensive matchups, and play-by-play scoring patterns. The result? A data-driven edge that helps identify which players have the highest probability of scoring the first basket in every NBA game.

And for Dimers Pro members, our expanded daily First Basket articles now include up to the Top 35 most likely scorers on the slate—exclusive insight you won’t find anywhere else, and a massive advantage for high-value First Basket bettors.

NBA first basket picks today - Wednesday, November 19

Today's slate features nine NBA matchups, presenting plenty of games to find value in.

Below is the breakdown for each of our five First Basket selections, including matchup details, probability edges, and why each pick makes sense based on the model’s output.

1. Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Nuggets vs. Pelicans
• Date: Wednesday, November 19, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Smoothie King Center

The most likely first basket scorer of the entire slate according to Dimers' projections is Nikola Jokic with a 17.6% probability, giving him fair odds right around his price of +500 on FanDuel.

Jokic has a pair of first buckets this season and has the highest first shot percentage of any player on the Nuggets who has played at least 10 games at 15.4%.

The Nuggets win the tip just 46.2% of the time, but that far exceeds the Pelicans' win % of just 21.4%.

Nikola Jokic First Basket odds: +500

2. Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Bulls vs. Trail Blazers
• Date: Wednesday, November 19, 2025
• Time: 10:00 PM ET
• Venue: Moda Cente

Our next pick is a Top 5 overall probability of the night in the Bulls vs. Blazers matchup as we look at Shaedon Sharpe to tally his second first bucket of the season.

His 16.0% probability gives us fair odds of +525, right around where he is available.

The Blazers should win the tip based on the matchup on paper - Portland wins 57.1% of the time compared to just 30.8% for Chicago, while Sharpe has a 7.1% first shot percentage. While on the lower end, no one on this team has more than 2 first baskets so far, including the first shot leaders of Toumani Camara and Jrue Holiday.

Shaedon Sharpe First Basket odds: +500

3. Norman Powell (Heat)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Warriors vs. Heat
• Date: Wednesday, November 19, 2025
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: Kaseya Center

Our third pick sees us step outside the Top 10 of the night with the Heat's Normal Powell at a 13.0% probability to score first.

While his odds are a little shorter than the fair price of +670, he's the most likely to get the first basket on the Heat according to Dimers' projections, 2.5% higher than the next, Andrew Wiggins and only Stephen Curry (who is ruled out) would have a higher probability in this entire game.

Powell has three first baskets this year, due largely to him taking the first shot a whopping 27.3% of the time and the Heat's 57.1% tip win rate.

Normal Powell First Basket odds: +470

4. Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Kings vs. Thunder
• Date: Wednesday, November 19, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Paycom Center

Our next pick is on Chet Holmgren of the Thunder with an 11.6% probability.

Holmgren doesn't have value, but strong trends that support him getting his fourth first basket of the season vs. the Kings.

The Thunder win the tip 66.7% of the time, one of the highest marks in the league. They'll face the Kings who sport one of the lowest at 21.4%.

The big man has a 9.1% first shot percentage but his three first baskets lead the team - the rest of the starting five have scored first a total of four times between them, while the Kings' starting five have two total first baskets combined.

Chet Holmgren First Basket odds: +500

5. Scottie Barnes (Raptors)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Raptors vs. 76ers
• Date: Wednesday, November 19, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena

The final pick of the night is on our best edge of the day, Scottie Barnes of the Toronto Raptors at 11.2% probability and big +1300 odds.

Barnes has tallied two first baskets this season, second most on this team, with a first shot percentage of 7.1% and his probability from the Dimers model would make his fair odds closer to +900 for a big value.

This is the most closely-matched tip win % between two teams tonight, with the Raptor's 50% win rate just higher than the 76ers at 46.2%, but the upside for Barnes with his value is a smart play.

Scottie Barnes First Basket odds: +1300

First basket betting strategy

For bettors looking to maximize upside without the all-or-nothing nature of a full parlay, the NBA First Basket Round Robin remains one of the most popular strategies among Dimers Pro members.

By combining multiple First Basket picks into a Round Robin of 2-, 3-, 4-, or 5-leg combinations, bettors can secure payouts even if only a portion of the picks hit—while still keeping the door open for a massive return if multiple selections connect.

This approach pairs perfectly with the Dimers model’s probability edges and is a core part of our recommended betting strategy each slate.

Why Dimers Pro members have the edge

Along with daily First Basket picks, Dimers Pro members receive:

• Expanded NBA First Basket lists featuring up to 35 players per slate

• Exclusive probability charts and matchup notes

• Direct Discord alerts for value shifts and model updates

• Private giveaways, contests, and member-only perks

If you're serious about NBA First Basket betting, joining the Pro community gives you more data, more angles, and more opportunities every day of the season.