Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of Wednesday's NBA slate.
Our NBA first basket predictions for November 19, 2025, are based on Wednesday's latest data and matchups.
Our NBA first basket predictions for Wednesday, November 19, 2025, have landed—with Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets the most likely player to score the first basket based on the latest Dimers Pro simulation data.
Wednesday's first basket predictions pull from our full list of NBA first basket odds and player projections, which highlight not only first basket probabilities, but also projected points, rebounds, assists and more for every player on today's basketball slate.
Who will score the first basket tonight? [November 19, 2025]
According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across today's games is Nikola Jokic, with a probability of 17.6%.
Player (Team)
FB Probability
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
17.6%
Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers)
17.6%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)
16.1%
Tyrese Maxey (76ers)
16.1%
Jalen Brunson (Knicks)
15.6%
Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)
15.0%
Pascal Siakam (Pacers)
13.7%
LaMelo Ball (Hornets)
13.5%
Julius Randle (Timberwolves)
13.5%
Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)
13.2%
Kevin Durant (Rockets)
13.1%
Norman Powell (Heat)
13.0%
Josh Giddey (Bulls)
12.4%
Miles Bridges (Hornets)
12.4%
Will Richard (Warriors)
12.3%
Drew Eubanks (Kings)
12.2%
Isaiah Hartenstein (Thunder)
12.2%
Jamal Murray (Nuggets)
11.9%
Alperen Sengun (Rockets)
11.9%
Chet Holmgren (Thunder)
11.6%
Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks)
11.5%
Scottie Barnes (Raptors)
11.2%
Bennedict Mathurin (Pacers)
11.1%
Cooper Flagg (Mavericks)
11.1%
CJ McCollum (Wizards)
11.0%
Zach LaVine (Kings)
11.0%
DeMar DeRozan (Kings)
10.9%
Jeremiah Fears (Pelicans)
10.9%
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)
10.8%
Brandon Ingram (Raptors)
10.8%
Coby White (Bulls)
10.7%
Kon Knueppel (Hornets)
10.5%
Moses Moody (Warriors)
10.5%
Andrew Wiggins (Heat)
10.5%
Kyshawn George (Wizards)
10.4%
Brandon Williams (Mavericks)
10.4%
Following Jokic closely are Deni Avdija at 17.6% and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 16.1%.
Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson also feature, with the full list of first basket projections for Wednesday available via today’s NBA player projections.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is among the top contenders in the NBA to score the first basket on Wednesday, November 19, 2025.
Best NBA first basket picks [11/19/2025]
Having simulated the result of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our predictive model has found the best NBA first basket betting pick for Wednesday.
Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate in the game between the Raptors and 76ers. The bet is on Scottie Barnes (TOR) at odds of +1300 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 4.0% according to our analysis.
Although Barnes doesn't feature in our model's top 10 most likely first basket scorers for Wednesday's NBA slate, he does present the best betting opportunity for those aiming to gain an edge on the market.
For November 19, 2025, our NBA first basket predictions feature standout players like Nikola Jokic, Deni Avdija and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander—all of whom are among the top projected chances to open the scoring in today’s games. But when it comes to betting value, it’s Scottie Barnes who emerges as the top pick, offering a calculated 4.0% edge at +1300 odds.
These projections are the result of 10,000 game simulations, giving you a reliable basis for smarter prop betting. Always wager with care—help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER if you or someone close to you needs support.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
