NBA First Basket Picks and Parlay: Expert analysis for NBA betting on Wednesday, December 3

Betting on NBA First Basket scorers has become one of the most exciting props in NBA betting. A high-risk, high-reward market, predicting the first basket can deliver massive value—especially when combining multiple selections into a parlay or Round Robins.

Each day throughout the NBA season, the Dimers model simulates every matchup 10,000 times to craft our NBA Predictions, accounting for pace, shot distribution, tip-off win rates, defensive matchups, and play-by-play scoring patterns. The result? A data-driven edge that helps identify which players have the highest probability of scoring the first basket in every NBA game.

And for Dimers Pro members, our daily First Basket articles offer exclusive insight you won’t find anywhere else, and a massive advantage for high-value First Basket bettors.

NBA first basket picks today - Wednesday, December 3

Today's slate features nine NBA matchups, presenting plenty of games to find value in.

Below is the breakdown for each of our five First Basket selections, including matchup details, probability edges, and why each pick makes sense based on the model’s output.

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Pistons vs. Bucks
• Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Fiserv Forum

Since returning just after the holiday, Giannis has played in three games and cashed the first field goal in two of them, though both games featured a free throw as the first basket. He is once again the top probability tonight at 17.8%.

The Bucks will face the Pistons, with both teams winning the tip under 40% of the time all season long, and both sitting at exactly 28.6% over their past 7 games, with neither team commanding the first possession.

However, Giannis has been the focal point since his return and has taken the first shot for his team in both the games he started the Bucks' scoring.

His fair odds tonight would be +460, giving us a little edge with him available at +500.

Giannis Antetokounmpo First Basket odds: +500

2. Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Trail Blazers vs. Cavaliers
• Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Rocket Arena

For our next basket, we move to the Cavs-Blazers showdown in Rocket Arena and task Donovan Mitchell to start the scoring for the third time this season.

On the year, the Cavs win the tip at a 68.2% rate, even higher over their past seven games at 85.7%. In this span, Mitchell has been the second-most likely player to take the first shot at 28.6%, behind only DeAndre Hunter.

They face Portland who have taken the first shot as a team just twice over the past two weeks.

Mitchell is our most likely to score first in this game at 15.0%, nearly four percent higher than the next player.

Donovan Mitchell First Basket odds: +420

3. Norman Powell (Heat)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Heat vs. Mavericks
• Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
• Time: 8:30 PM ET
• Venue: American Airlines Center

Note: Norman Powell has been scratched tonight. If you haven't yet placed this round robin, we would recommend Bam Adebayo as our next most likely scorer for Miami in this game.

Next up, we're looking at Normal Powell of the Miam Heat who rounds out today's Top 10 overall probabilities at 13.5%.

Powell has four first baskets in 17 games played this season, the most on the Heat and takes the first shot of the game nearly 35% of the time, behind only Bam Adebayo who has just a pair of first baskets to show for it.

Miami has won the tip at a 57.1% rate this season and four times in their past seven games. They'll face the Mavs who win have won the tip off just once in their past seven games, and their most frequent first shooter this season, Cooper Flagg, has scored zero first baskets.

Powell's 13.5% probability makes him right at fair odds to pick up his fifth of the year.

Normal Powell First Basket odds: +650

4. Kon Knueppel (Hornets)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Hornets vs. Knicks
• Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
• Time: 7:30 PM ET
• Venue: Madison Square Garden

We're looking at the Hornets rookie when Kon Knueppel and his team visit Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night.

Over the past two weeks, just four players have taken the first shot of the game more often than Knueppel, who's bagged a pair of first baskets in that span, bringing his season total to four.

He's regularly featured early in games, shooting first in 25% of appearances this season and they'll face the Knicks who have been below average on the opening tip-off, winning 45% of the time on the season. with three started shooting first at 11% or less.

At 12.5%, Knueppel sits just outside our top 10 overall on the night and is the second-highest in this game at perfectly fair odds.

Kon Knueppel First Basket odds: +700

5. Desmond Bane (Magic)

Matchup Details:

• Teams: Spurs vs. Magic
• Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Kia Center

No team wins the opening tip more than Orlando this season and they'll look to take advantage vs. a Spurs team winning under 50% of opening tip-offs without Wemby.

Over their past seven games, the Magic have won the tip 71.4% of the time with tonight's target, Desmond Bane, taking the first shot in four of those games, netting one first basket.

Bane draws a 12.3% first basket probability, second highest on the Magic behind Franz Wagner, who's only taken the first shot in under 10% of games this season.

Desmond Bane First Basket odds: +550

Dimers' first basket picks today.

First basket betting strategy

For bettors looking to maximize upside without the all-or-nothing nature of a full parlay, the NBA First Basket Round Robin remains one of the most popular strategies among Dimers Pro members.

By combining multiple First Basket picks into a Round Robin of 2-, 3-, 4-, or 5-leg combinations, bettors can secure payouts even if only a portion of the picks hit—while still keeping the door open for a massive return if multiple selections connect.

This approach pairs perfectly with the Dimers model’s probability edges and is a core part of our recommended betting strategy each slate.

Why Dimers Pro members have the edge

Along with daily First Basket picks, Dimers Pro members receive:

• Expanded NBA First Basket lists featuring up to 35 players per slate

• Exclusive probability charts and matchup notes

• Direct Discord alerts for value shifts and model updates

• Private giveaways, contests, and member-only perks

If you're serious about NBA First Basket betting, joining the Pro community gives you more data, more angles, and more opportunities every day of the season.