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Heat vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Mavericks NBA game on December 3, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
108
118
Dec 4, 1:30AM American Airlines Center
Dec 4, 1:30AM American Airlines Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 33 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 108 |
Mavericks | 28 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 118 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
1%
99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 33 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 108 |
Mavericks | 28 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 118 |
Q4 00:08 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:24 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:48 Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:58 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:18 Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:19 Andrew Wiggins misses two point tip layup
Q4 1:21 Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:25 Mavericks makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:49 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:59 Cooper Flagg makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
108-118
+2
Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot
108-116
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins misses two point tip layup
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Tyler Herro misses three point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
106-116
Heat 60 second timeout
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
106-114
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point turnaround bank jump shot
106-112
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point running finger roll layup (Davion Mitchell assists)
108-118
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Max Christie misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
104-110
Heat personal foul
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
102-110
Mavericks offensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Tyler Herro)
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point jump shot
102-110
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
108-118
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson)
Cooper Flagg turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Bam Adebayo, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
94-104
+3
Naji Marshall makes three point jump shot (Max Christie assists)
102-109
+3
Dru Smith makes three point jump shot
94-104
Dru Smith offensive rebound
Simone Fontecchio misses three point jump shot
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware turnover
Kel'el Ware defensive goaltending violation
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
108-118
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
108-118
Naji Marshall personal foul (Andrew Wiggins draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
94-104
Kel'el Ware personal foul
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Cooper Flagg misses regular free throw 1 of 1
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point jump shot
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
108-118
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware personal foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 2 of 2
108-118
+1
Cooper Flagg makes regular free throw 1 of 2
108-118
Mavericks 60 second timeout
+2
Dru Smith makes two point jump shot
89-98
Cooper Flagg turnover (lost ball) (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
89-98
Klay Thompson shooting foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
108-118
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point layup (Ryan Nembhard assists)
102-109
Heat turnover
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg)
Mavericks turnover
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
D'Angelo Russell misses three point jump shot
D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound
Tyler Herro misses three point running jump shot
Anthony Davis turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
80-96
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
104-110
Anthony Davis turnover (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat turnover
Heat offensive rebound
Dru Smith offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
D'Angelo Russell personal foul
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
104-110
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Dru Smith defensive rebound
End of 3rd Quarter.
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Cooper Flagg, D'Angelo Russell)
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
+3
Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot (Dru Smith assists)
104-110
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
108-118
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
D'Angelo Russell makes three point stepback jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)
108-118
Dru Smith personal foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. turnover (traveling)
Naji Marshall personal foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro)
+1
Dru Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 1
108-118
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
108-118
Brandon Williams offensive rebound
Daniel Gafford misses two point putback layup
Daniel Gafford offensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins misses three point pullup jump shot
Brandon Williams turnover
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point running alley-oop dunk (Dru Smith assists)
108-118
Daniel Gafford turnover (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)
Naji Marshall offensive rebound
Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Dru Smith, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+3
Simone Fontecchio makes three point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
74-85
Heat lineup change (Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Daniel Gafford, D'Angelo Russell)
Brandon Williams misses two point driving finger roll layup
Heat defensive rebound
+2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point tip layup
76-87
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)
108-118
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
108-118
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
108-118
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Heat misses two point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, D'Angelo Russell)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point fadeaway jump shot
104-110
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point putback dunk
108-118
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses two point jump shot
Heat defensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Max Christie misses three point jump shot
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
104-110
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
108-118
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
Bam Adebayo misses three point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
Heat turnover (Daniel Gafford steals)
Heat 60 second timeout
Stoppage (Court cleanup)
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
108-118
Max Christie defensive rebound
Anthony Davis blocks Davion Mitchell's two point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses three point jump shot
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Tyler Herro defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point tip layup
Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
+2
Andrew Wiggins makes two point running layup (Davion Mitchell assists)
104-110
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
Bam Adebayo turnover
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
108-118
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
108-118
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point jump shot
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot
108-118
Ryan Nembhard personal foul
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
108-118
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Max Christie makes three point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
108-118
+1
Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 2
108-118
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Andrew Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 2
108-118
Naji Marshall personal foul
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
108-118
Heat offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Heat misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Tyler Herro)
Ryan Nembhard personal foul (Nikola Jovic draws the foul)
+1
Tyler Herro makes technical free throw 1 of 1
54-64
Mavericks personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
54-64
Naji Marshall offensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins misses two point driving hook shot
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses three point jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat defensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson)
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Bam Adebayo, Nikola Jovic, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, Tyler Herro)
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg)
Bam Adebayo misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Ryan Nembhard misses two point stepback jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
76-87
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point running pullup jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
76-87
D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
D'Angelo Russell makes two point floating jump shot
54-64
D'Angelo Russell offensive rebound
D'Angelo Russell misses two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
76-87
Mavericks delay of game violation
+2
Max Christie makes two point jump shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)
76-87
Davion Mitchell personal foul (Ryan Nembhard draws the foul)
Andrew Wiggins personal foul (Daniel Gafford draws the foul)
Andrew Wiggins turnover (offensive foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, D'Angelo Russell)
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
108-118
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Pelle Larsson misses three point jump shot
Naji Marshall offensive rebound
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point putback layup
51-60
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Max Christie defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Max Christie misses three point stepback jump shot
+2
Bam Adebayo makes two point jump shot
53-64
+2
Ryan Nembhard makes two point jump shot
76-87
Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Nikola Jovic misses two point driving floating jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat offensive rebound
Pelle Larsson misses three point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Daniel Gafford, D'Angelo Russell)
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Bam Adebayo, Nikola Jovic, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins)
Heat 60 second timeout
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
108-118
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
53-64
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
108-118
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
108-118
Simone Fontecchio turnover
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
108-118
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
108-118
Mavericks offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks turnover
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Mavericks offensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Simone Fontecchio, Tyler Herro)
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg)
Klay Thompson misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
66-81
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Klay Thompson offensive rebound
Mavericks turnover
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Davion Mitchell, Simone Fontecchio, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyler Herro)
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
108-118
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Dru Smith misses three point running jump shot
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+3
Klay Thompson makes three point jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
37-38
Tyler Herro turnover (bad pass) (Anthony Davis steals)
Klay Thompson kicked ball violation
+3
Anthony Davis makes three point jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
37-35
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point tip dunk
37-32
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)
35-32
Cooper Flagg shooting foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
35-30
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
34-30
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point tip layup
33-30
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
Simone Fontecchio blocks Klay Thompson's two point driving layup
Dwight Powell blocks Simone Fontecchio's two point driving layup
Mavericks lineup change (Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg)
End of 1st Quarter.
Heat offensive rebound
Start of 2nd Quarter
+2
Klay Thompson makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
33-28
Caleb Martin personal foul (Loose ball) (Simone Fontecchio draws the foul)
Caleb Martin technical foul (Double)
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 2 of 2
33-26
Mavericks lineup change (Dwight Powell, Max Christie, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell)
Simone Fontecchio technical foul (Double)
+1
Simone Fontecchio makes regular free throw 1 of 2
32-26
Heat defensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Caleb Martin turnover
D'Angelo Russell misses three point pullup jump shot
+1
Kel'el Ware makes regular free throw 2 of 2
31-26
Caleb Martin shooting foul (Kel'el Ware draws the foul)
+1
Kel'el Ware makes regular free throw 1 of 2
30-26
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Caleb Martin misses two point driving finger roll layup
+2
Tyler Herro makes two point driving floating jump shot (Dru Smith assists)
28-26
+1
Tyler Herro makes regular free throw 1 of 1
29-26
D'Angelo Russell shooting foul (Tyler Herro draws the foul)
D'Angelo Russell turnover
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point running reverse layup
26-26
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
Dru Smith misses two point driving floating jump shot
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Klay Thompson misses two point jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks turnover
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell)
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, D'Angelo Russell)
Kel'el Ware blocks Brandon Williams's two point driving reverse layup
Klay Thompson defensive rebound
Klay Thompson blocks Simone Fontecchio's three point jump shot
Brandon Williams turnover (bad pass) (Kel'el Ware steals)
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point putback dunk
26-24
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Game Prediction Article
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Heat vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Mavericks
- Date: Wednesday, December 3, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Heat favored at -4.5
- Total (Over/Under): 237.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat -185, Mavericks +162
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 66%
- Mavericks: 34%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 121-116 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 66%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 34%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Heat are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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