MLB Saturday Picks

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Written by Jason Bevilacqua
MLB Saturday Picks

The season is barely a month old but amazingly we are almost at the halfway point of this shortened MLB season, and the flurry of games keeps on coming this weekend with 15 games on the slate across the nation today.

 

Our supercomputer has taken all of the hard work out of it for you by analyzing all the numbers and coming up with our best plays for a hectic day of baseball action.

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Phillies @ Braves

Braves ML (+105*) has a 53% probability

 

The Phillies have been about as temperamental as a two-year-old baby this year; sometimes they’re good, sometimes they’re really bad. It’s been an up and down season so far for Philadelphia who are riding a four-game losing streak.

The Braves are four from their last five, including an 11-2 win against the Phillies yesterday. We see that continuing into today. Look for them to win this one.


Astros @ Padres
Over 9.5 runs (+115*) has a 54% probability


Our predictive model thinks this over/under line should be higher, so we’re taking advantage of the generosity of the sportsbooks by happily taking their money.

This game is going to be an exciting one with two in-form teams clashing, but we like the fact that that Padres’ games average 12 total runs per game over their last five. Look for that to continue.

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Reds @ Cardinals
Under 9.5 runs (-110*) has a 57% probability


The third clash of this four-game series gets underway today, and we believe the low scoring of the previous two encounters will continue.

After notching up 9 total runs on Thursday, yesterday’s game only yielded 6 runs. Our predictive analysis can’t see this one deviating from the script today.



Twins @ Royals
Royals +1.5 (-110*) has a 59% probability

These two keep it going on Saturday with their second game in as many days. Last night the Royals got the win pretty easily against the Twins with a 7-2 victory. We like the Royals to win again, but for some added security take the run line.

 

Tigers @ Indians
Tigers +1.5 (-130*) has a 59% probability

The Tigers finally were able to win a game, beating the Indians last night 10-5. It was the first win in a while for the Tigers who lost nine in a row leading up to the series opener against the Indians, and our model thinks they’ll continue to ride the wave of momentum again tonight. Take the Tigers at the run line.

 

*Odds and percentages are correct at the time of publishing

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Written by
Jason Bevilacqua
Head of Content and Communities

Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.

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