MLB player props today: Tuesday's best props include Clay Holmes [4/28/2026]

Clay Holmes over 3.5 strikeouts (-152)

• Edge: 6.9%
• Probability: 67.1%
• Game: Nationals vs. Mets (7:10PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on NY Mets' Clay Holmes over 3.5 strikeouts. A probability of 67.1% gives this play an edge of 6.9% at -152 odds.

Jacob deGrom over 3.5 hits allowed (-131)

• Edge: 8.9%
• Probability: 65.6%
• Game: Yankees vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

Jacob deGrom’s hits allowed prop shows a 65.6% probability and an 8.9% edge at -131 odds, according to our model.

Edward Cabrera under 5.5 hits allowed (-141)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 65.0%
• Game: Cubs vs. Padres (9:40PM ET)

The data highlights value on Edward Cabrera under 5.5 hits allowed, with simulations showing a 65.0% probability and a 6.5% edge at -141.

Aaron Civale over 3.5 strikeouts (-160)

• Edge: 3.1%
• Probability: 64.7%
• Game: Royals vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)

Our model finds value on Aaron Civale over 3.5 strikeouts, with a 64.7% probability and an edge of 3.1% at -160 odds.

Justin Crawford over 0.5 bases (-152)

• Edge: 4.3%
• Probability: 64.6%
• Game: Giants vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Justin Crawford over 0.5 bases for Philadelphia, showing an edge of 4.3% at -152 odds.

Justin Crawford to get a hit (-155)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 64.6%
• Game: Giants vs. Phillies (6:40PM ET)

Justin Crawford’s to get a hit prop shows an edge of 3.8% at -155 odds, supported by a 64.6% probability according to our model.

Jose Soriano over 1.5 earned runs (-153)

• Edge: 4.0%
• Probability: 64.5%
• Game: Angels vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Jose Soriano over 1.5 earned runs for LA Angels, with a 64.5% probability and a 4.0% edge at -153 odds.

Jacob deGrom under 7.5 strikeouts (-149)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 64.4%
• Game: Yankees vs. Rangers (8:05PM ET)

The data shows value on Jacob deGrom under 7.5 strikeouts, supported by a 64.4% probability at -149 odds and an edge of 4.6%.

Zack Littell over 3.5 strikeouts (-116)

• Edge: 8.6%
• Probability: 62.3%
• Game: Nationals vs. Mets (7:10PM ET)

An 8.6% edge on the over 7.5 strikeouts line makes Zack Littell a value play in Nationals vs. Mets, supported by a 62.3% probability at -116 odds.

Hyeseong Kim to get a hit (-140)

• Edge: 2.0%
• Probability: 60.4%
• Game: Marlins vs. Dodgers (10:10PM ET)

Simulations show value on Hyeseong Kim to get a hit here, with a 60.4% probability and 2.0% edge at -140 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Tuesday, April 28, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 3:46AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Nationals vs. Mets	Clay Holmes over 3.5 strikeouts	-152 @ fanatics	6.9%	67.1%
Yankees vs. Rangers	Jacob deGrom over 3.5 hits allowed	-131 @ DraftKings	8.9%	65.6%
Cubs vs. Padres	Edward Cabrera under 5.5 hits allowed	-141 @ DraftKings	3.1%	64.7%
Royals vs. Athletics	Aaron Civale over 3.5 strikeouts	-160 @ FanDuel	3.1%	64.7%
Giants vs. Phillies	Justin Crawford over 0.5 bases	-152 @ fanatics	4.3%	64.6%
Giants vs. Phillies	Justin Crawford to get a hit	-155 @ FanDuel	3.8%	64.6%
Angels vs. White Sox	Jose Soriano over 1.5 earned runs	-153 @ DraftKings	4.0%	64.5%
Yankees vs. Rangers	Jacob deGrom under 7.5 strikeouts	-149 @ DraftKings	4.6%	64.4%
Nationals vs. Mets	Zack Littell over 7.5 strikeouts	-116 @ DraftKings	8.6%	62.3%
Marlins vs. Dodgers	Hyeseong Kim to get a hit	-140 @ DraftKings	2.0%	60.4%

Conclusion

For April 28, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Clay Holmes, Jacob deGrom and Edward Cabrera. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.