MLB player props today: Independence Day best props include Merrill Kelly [7/4/2026]

Merrill Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts (-140)

• Edge: 7.9%
• Probability: 66.2%
• Game: Brewers vs. D-Backs (9:40PM ET)

Our model has found value on Arizona's Merrill Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts. A probability of 66.2% gives this play an edge of 7.9% at -140 odds.

Jesús Luzardo under 6.5 strikeouts (-136)

• Edge: 7.1%
• Probability: 64.7%
• Game: Phillies vs. Royals (8:10PM ET)

Jesús Luzardo’s strikeouts prop shows a 64.7% probability and an 7.1% edge at -136 odds, according to our model.

Rafael Devers over 1.5 bases (-130)

• Edge: 7.9%
• Probability: 64.4%
• Game: Giants vs. Rockies (8:10PM ET)

The data highlights value on Rafael Devers over 1.5 bases, with simulations showing a 64.4% probability and a 7.9% edge at -130.

Yainer Diaz over 0.5 bases (-165)

• Edge: 2.1%
• Probability: 64.4%
• Game: Rays vs. Astros (7:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Yainer Diaz over 0.5 bases, with a 64.4% probability and an edge of 2.1% at -165 odds.

Yainer Diaz to get a hit (-163)

• Edge: 2.4%
• Probability: 64.4%
• Game: Rays vs. Astros (7:10PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Yainer Diaz to get a hit for Houston, showing an edge of 2.4% at -163 odds.

Aaron Civale over 3.5 strikeouts (-130)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 63.0%
• Game: Marlins vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)

Aaron Civale’s strikeouts prop shows an edge of 6.5% at -130 odds, supported by a 63.0% probability according to our model.

Zebby Matthews under 5.5 strikeouts (-138)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 62.6%
• Game: Twins vs. Yankees (1:35PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Zebby Matthews under 5.5 strikeouts for Minnesota, with a 62.6% probability and a 4.6% edge at -138 odds.

Dansby Swanson to get a hit (-141)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 61.4%
• Game: Cardinals vs. Cubs (8:08PM ET)

The data shows value on Dansby Swanson to get a hit, supported by a 61.4% probability at -141 odds and an edge of 2.9%.

Sandy Alcantara over 6.5 hits allowed (-125)

• Edge: 5.8%
• Probability: 61.3%
• Game: Marlins vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)

A 5.8% edge on the over 0.5 hits allowed line makes Sandy Alcantara a value play in Marlins vs. Athletics, supported by a 61.3% probability at -125 odds.

Miguel Amaya to get a hit (-131)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 61.2%
• Game: Cardinals vs. Cubs (8:08PM ET)

Simulations show value on Miguel Amaya to get a hit here, with a 61.2% probability and 4.5% edge at -131 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Saturday, July 4, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 3:25AM ET:

Boost your betting success with Dimers Pro's MLB best props

Curious about the added power of our MLB prop picks with Dimers Pro? Watch this explainer video to see how you can elevate your betting strategy and maximize your winning potential.

Conclusion

For July 4, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Merrill Kelly, Jesús Luzardo and Rafael Devers. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.