MLB player props today: Friday's best props include Connelly Early [5/15/2026]

Connelly Early under 5.5 hits allowed (-152)

• Edge: 8.6%
• Probability: 68.9%
• Game: Red Sox vs. Braves (7:15PM ET)

Our model has found value on Boston's Connelly Early under 5.5 hits allowed. A probability of 68.9% gives this play an edge of 8.6% at -152 odds.

Shane Baz under 5.5 strikeouts (-148)

• Edge: 7.0%
• Probability: 66.7%
• Game: Orioles vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)

Shane Baz’s strikeouts prop shows a 66.7% probability and an 7.0% edge at -148 odds, according to our model.

Trey Yesavage under 4.5 hits allowed (-156)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 66.7%
• Game: Blue Jays vs. Tigers (6:45PM ET)

The data highlights value on Trey Yesavage under 4.5 hits allowed, with simulations showing a 66.7% probability and a 5.7% edge at -156.

Tanner Bibee under 6.5 strikeouts (-146)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 66.0%
• Game: Reds vs. Guardians (7:10PM ET)

Our model finds value on Tanner Bibee under 6.5 strikeouts, with a 66.0% probability and an edge of 6.6% at -146 odds.

Emerson Hancock over 1.5 earned runs (-165)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 65.8%
• Game: Padres vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Emerson Hancock over 1.5 earned runs for Seattle, showing an edge of 3.5% at -165 odds.

Corbin Carroll over 1.5 bases (-131)

• Edge: 7.7%
• Probability: 64.4%
• Game: D-Backs vs. Rockies (8:40PM ET)

Corbin Carroll’s bases prop shows an edge of 7.7% at -131 odds, supported by a 64.4% probability according to our model.

Janson Junk over 5.5 hits allowed (-135)

• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 63.8%
• Game: Marlins vs. Rays (7:10PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Janson Junk over 5.5 hits allowed for Miami, with a 63.8% probability and a 6.4% edge at -135 odds.

Emerson Hancock under 5.5 strikeouts (-134)

• Edge: 6.0%
• Probability: 63.2%
• Game: Padres vs. Mariners (9:40PM ET)

The data shows value on Emerson Hancock under 5.5 strikeouts, supported by a 63.2% probability at -134 odds and an edge of 6.0%.

Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-117)

• Edge: 8.7%
• Probability: 62.7%
• Game: Dodgers vs. Angels (9:38PM ET)

An 8.7% edge on the over 5.5 bases line makes Shohei Ohtani a value play in Dodgers vs. Angels, supported by a 62.7% probability at -117 odds.

Dustin May over 2.5 earned runs (-107)

• Edge: 9.3%
• Probability: 61.0%
• Game: Royals vs. Cardinals (8:15PM ET)

Simulations show value on Dustin May over 2.5 earned runs here, with a 61.0% probability and 9.3% edge at -107 odds.

MLB player prop summary: Friday, May 15, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 8:07AM ET:

Conclusion

For May 15, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Connelly Early, Shane Baz and Trey Yesavage. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.