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Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +586 pick for Wednesday [5/6/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Wednesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 6, 2026, feature Jo Adell as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Wednesday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 6, 2026
See which hitters join Adell on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +586.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 23.9% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 23.5% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 22.9% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 22.0% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 21.1% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 20.9% |
| Mike Trout (Angels) | 19.9% |
| Francisco Alvarez (Mets) | 19.3% |
| Jorge Soler (Angels) | 19.0% |
| Zach Neto (Angels) | 18.8% |
Our analysis shows Adell leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.9% chance to go deep, followed by Aaron Judge (23.5%) and Shohei Ohtani (22.9%).
Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Wednesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Wednesday's home run picks [5/6/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro spotlights today’s top home run prop.
Francisco Alvarez (Mets) to hit a home run
- Probability: 19.7%
- Odds: +586
- Edge: 5.1%
- Game: Mets vs. Rockies (9:20 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Michael Lorenzen
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Francisco Alvarez rates as a value play at +586 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 5.1% edge.
Set to face Michael Lorenzen in tonight's Mets-Rockies matchup, the data supports Alvarez as one of Wednesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 17 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 6, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Jo Adell, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Francisco Alvarez who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 5.1% edge at +586 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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