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Home run predictions for Thursday include Juan Soto, Francisco Alvarez [5/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Thursday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 7, 2026, feature Juan Soto as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Thursday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, built to highlight the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 7, 2026
See which hitters join Soto on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +680.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 22.8% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 22.5% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 21.9% |
| Francisco Alvarez (Mets) | 20.8% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 19.8% |
| Mark Vientos (Mets) | 19.6% |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 18.7% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 18.3% |
| Michael Busch (Cubs) | 17.9% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 17.4% |
Our analysis shows Soto leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.8% chance to go yard, followed by Aaron Judge (22.5%) and Kyle Schwarber (21.9%).
Francisco Alvarez and Nick Kurtz are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Thursday's home run picks [5/7/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Brett Baty (Mets) to hit a home run
- Probability: 16.8%
- Odds: +680
- Edge: 3.9%
- Game: Mets vs. Rockies (3:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Jose Quintana
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Brett Baty rates as a value play at +680 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 3.9% edge.
Set to face Jose Quintana in tonight's Mets-Rockies matchup, the data supports Baty as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of five home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 7, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Brett Baty who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.9% edge at +680 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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