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Read Article Home run predictions for Sunday include Nick Kurtz, Pete Alonso [5/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Sunday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Sunday, May 17, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Sunday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, built to highlight the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 17, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +790.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 24.8% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 23.1% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 22.1% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 22.0% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 21.1% |
| Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics) | 19.4% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 18.5% |
| Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) | 18.4% |
| Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) | 18.3% |
| Samuel Basallo (Orioles) | 17.8% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 24.8% chance to go yard, followed by Shea Langeliers (23.1%) and Brent Rooker (22.1%).
Shohei Ohtani and Pete Alonso are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Sunday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep. appears in today's home run predictions on Sunday, May 17, 2026.
Sunday's home run picks [5/17/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and evaluating key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Colton Cowser (Orioles) to hit a home run
- Probability: 15.1%
- Odds: +790
- Edge: 3.9%
- Game: Orioles vs. Nationals (1:35 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Richard Lovelady
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Baltimore slugger Colton Cowser rates as a value play at +790 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 3.9% edge.
Set to face Richard Lovelady in tonight's Orioles-Nationals matchup, the data supports Cowser as one of Sunday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of seven home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 17, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Colton Cowser who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.9% edge at +790 odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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