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Home run predictions for Sunday include Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani [5/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Sunday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Sunday, May 10, 2026, feature Kyle Schwarber as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Sunday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which highlight the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for May 10, 2026
See which hitters join Schwarber on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +1040.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 26.9% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 23.4% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 20.6% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 20.4% |
| Adolis Garcia (Phillies) | 19.8% |
| Bryce Harper (Phillies) | 19.8% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 19.8% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 19.2% |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | 18.9% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 18.6% |
Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 26.9% chance to go deep, followed by Shohei Ohtani (23.4%) and Cal Raleigh (20.6%).
Aaron Judge and Adolis Garcia are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Sunday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Sunday's home run picks [5/10/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Alec Bohm (Phillies) to hit a home run
- Probability: 12.6%
- Odds: +1040
- Edge: 3.9%
- Game: Rockies vs. Phillies (1:35 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Philadelphia slugger Alec Bohm rates as a value play at +1040 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.9% edge.
Against Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano, the data supports Bohm as one of Sunday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 10, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani and Cal Raleigh projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Alec Bohm who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.9% edge at +1040 odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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