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Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Saturday has +750 odds [5/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Saturday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, May 23, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Saturday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, built to highlight the top home run picks today.
Home run predictions for May 23, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +750.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 23.0% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 20.9% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 20.5% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 19.3% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 18.8% |
| Ronald Acuna (Braves) | 18.6% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 17.9% |
| Austin Riley (Braves) | 17.7% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 17.6% |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 17.5% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.0% chance to go deep, followed by Shohei Ohtani (20.9%) and Kyle Schwarber (20.5%).
Junior Caminero and Nick Kurtz are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Saturday's home run picks [5/23/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Austin Wells (Yankees) to hit a home run
- Probability: 14.9%
- Odds: +750
- Edge: 3.1%
- Game: Rays vs. Yankees (1:35 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Drew Rasmussen
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Austin Wells rates as a value play at +750 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 3.1% edge.
With Drew Rasmussen on the mound for the Rays, the data supports Wells as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of six home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 23, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Austin Wells who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.1% edge at +750 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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