May 16, 2026
Marlins vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [5/16/2026]
Read Article Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +850 pick for Saturday [5/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today guided by expert analysis of Saturday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, May 16, 2026, feature Nick Kurtz as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Saturday's HR projections come straight from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 16, 2026
See which hitters join Kurtz on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +850.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 23.1% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 21.4% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 20.9% |
| Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) | 20.6% |
| Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) | 20.6% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 20.3% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 19.7% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 19.6% |
| Gary Sanchez (Brewers) | 19.0% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 18.5% |
Our analysis shows Kurtz leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.1% chance to go deep, followed by Shea Langeliers (21.4%) and Shohei Ohtani (20.9%).
Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Saturday's home run picks [5/16/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, identifies today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) to hit a home run
- Probability: 15%
- Odds: +850
- Edge: 4.5%
- Game: Dodgers vs. Angels (9:38 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: José Soriano
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Los Angeles slugger Teoscar Hernandez rates as a value play at +850 with DraftKings Sportsbook, showing a 4.5% edge.
Set to face José Soriano in tonight's Dodgers-Angels matchup, the data supports Hernandez as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 12 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 16, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Teoscar Hernandez who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.5% edge at +850 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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