May 16, 2026
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Read Article Marlins vs. Rays prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's MLB matchup [5/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays predictions for MLB Saturday.
The Tampa Bay Rays will square off with the Miami Marlins in MLB action at Tropicana Field on Saturday, beginning at 4:10 PM ET.
Nick Martinez (4-1, 1.70 ERA) will start on the mound for the Rays, while the Marlins have opted for Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.90 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced MLB model predicts the Rays as the most likely winner of the Marlins vs. Rays game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Marlins vs. Rays prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's MLB matchup between the Marlins and Rays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Rays a 56% chance of beating the Marlins.
According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 56% chance of going over.
Marlins vs. Rays odds [5/16/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Marlins | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-180) | -1.5 (+150) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -138 |
| Total | o7.5 (-115) | u7.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Marlins vs. Rays picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Rays -1.5 | +150 |
| Moneyline | Marlins | +120 |
| Total | Over 7.5 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Marlins vs. Rays game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's MLB action between the Rays and Marlins at Tropicana Field is scheduled to start at 4:10 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
- Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10PM PT
- Venue: Tropicana Field
Conclusion
We predict the Rays, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Saturday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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