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Today’s top 10 most likely home run hitters, plus +540 pick for Saturday [5/9/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Saturday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Saturday, May 9, 2026, feature Kyle Schwarber as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Saturday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for May 9, 2026
See which hitters join Schwarber on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +540.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 25.0% |
| Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays) | 21.0% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 20.3% |
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 20.2% |
| Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) | 20.0% |
| Pete Alonso (Orioles) | 19.9% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 19.4% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 18.9% |
| Adolis Garcia (Phillies) | 18.9% |
| Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays) | 18.8% |
Our analysis shows Schwarber leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 25.0% chance to go deep, followed by Vladimir Guerrero (21.0%) and Shohei Ohtani (20.3%).
Cal Raleigh and Daulton Varsho are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Saturday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Saturday's home run picks [5/9/2026]
After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and assessing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) to hit a home run
- Probability: 21%
- Odds: +540
- Edge: 5.4%
- Game: Angels vs. Blue Jays (3:07 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Jack Kochanowicz
Ranked among today’s top three home run projections, Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. rates as a value play at +540 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 5.4% edge.
Against Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz, the data supports Jr. as one of Saturday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 10 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 9, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Kyle Schwarber, Vladimir Guerrero and Shohei Ohtani projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. Jr. in particular emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 5.4% edge at +540 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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