May 22, 2026
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Read Article Home run predictions for Friday include Aaron Judge, Austin Riley [5/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get home run predictions today driven by expert analysis of Friday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Friday, May 22, 2026, feature Aaron Judge as the top projected hitter, according to Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Friday's HR projections come from our home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for May 22, 2026
See which hitters join Judge on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +790.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 22.2% |
| Ronald Acuna (Braves) | 20.3% |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 20.0% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 19.5% |
| Austin Riley (Braves) | 19.3% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 19.0% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 19.0% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 18.2% |
| Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) | 18.0% |
| Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) | 17.6% |
Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 22.2% chance to go deep, followed by Ronald Acuna (20.3%) and Matt Olson (20.0%).
Shohei Ohtani and Austin Riley are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Friday's home run picks [5/22/2026]
Powered by 10,000 simulations and data-driven factors like weather and pitcher form, Dimers Pro highlights today’s top home run prop.
Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox) to hit a home run
- Probability: 16%
- Odds: +790
- Edge: 4.8%
- Game: Twins vs. Red Sox (7:10 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Connor Prielipp
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Boston slugger Wilyer Abreu rates as a value play at +790 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 4.8% edge.
With Connor Prielipp on the mound for the Twins, the data supports Abreu as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.
Pro users have access to a total of 15 home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For May 22, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Wilyer Abreu who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 4.8% edge at +790 odds.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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