MLB picks today: Sunday's MLB best bets include Phillies vs. Mets play [6/28/2026]

Mets ML (+141)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 48.8%
• Matchup: Phillies vs. Mets (1:40PM ET)

Our model has identified value on Mets to defeat Phillies at +141 odds. A 48.8% probability produces an edge of 7.3%, making this the strongest play for today's MLB slate.

Mets +1.5 (-122)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 61.5%
• Matchup: Phillies vs. Mets (1:40PM ET)

Mets +1.5 carries a 6.5% edge and a probability of 61.5% at -122 odds, according to our model.

Rockies vs. Twins Over 9.5 runs (+125)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 50.6%
• Matchup: Rockies vs. Twins (2:10PM ET)

Rockies vs. Twins Over 9.5 runs at +125 odds shows a 6.1% edge, supported by a 50.6% probability in simulations.

Diamondbacks ML (+174)

• Edge: 5.0%
• Probability: 41.5%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rays (1:40PM ET)

A 5.0% edge and 41.5% probability makes Diamondbacks at the moneyline a value play in the Diamondbacks vs. Rays matchup, per our model.

Mariners ML (+102)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 54.1%
• Matchup: Mariners vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET)

Mariners ML at +102 odds presents a 4.6% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 54.1%.

Rangers vs. Blue Jays Over 8.5 runs (+102)

• Edge: 4.5%
• Probability: 54%
• Matchup: Rangers vs. Blue Jays (1:37PM ET)

Our model finds value on Over 8.5 runs in Rangers vs. Blue Jays at +102 odds, supported by an edge of 4.5%.

Nationals vs. Orioles Over 9.5 runs (+135)

• Edge: 4.4%
• Probability: 46.9%
• Matchup: Nationals vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET)

Our model has uncovered value on Nationals vs. Orioles Over 9.5 runs at +135 odds. A 46.9% probability produces a 4.4% edge, making this a strong play for today's MLB action.

Athletics vs. Angels Over 9.5 runs (+100)

• Edge: 4.3%
• Probability: 54.3%
• Matchup: Athletics vs. Angels (3:15PM ET)

A 4.3% edge on a 54.3% probability makes Over 9.5 runs at +100 odds a solid value play in today's Athletics vs. Angels matchup.

Diamondbacks +1.5 (-122)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 58.9%
• Matchup: Diamondbacks vs. Rays (1:40PM ET)

Our model projects value on Diamondbacks +1.5 at -122 odds. A 58.9% probability produces a 3.9% edge, making Diamondbacks the favorable side in today's matchup.

Dodgers vs. Padres Over 7.5 runs (-115)

• Edge: 3.9%
• Probability: 57.4%
• Matchup: Dodgers vs. Padres (4:10PM ET)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Dodgers vs. Padres Over 7.5 runs at -115 odds shows a 57.4% probability and a 3.9% edge.

MLB best bets summary: Sunday, 6/28/2026

As of 3:11AM ET, here are our top MLB bets by edge recommended by our model:

List of upcoming MLB games to bet on [6/28/2026]

• Reds vs. Pirates (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Nationals vs. Orioles (1:35PM ET, Sunday)
• Rangers vs. Blue Jays (1:37PM ET, Sunday)
• Astros vs. Tigers (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Mariners vs. Guardians (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• D-Backs vs. Rays (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Phillies vs. Mets (1:40PM ET, Sunday)
• Royals vs. White Sox (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Rockies vs. Twins (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Cubs vs. Brewers (2:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Marlins vs. Cardinals (2:15PM ET, Sunday)
• Athletics vs. Angels (3:15PM ET, Sunday)
• Braves vs. Giants (4:05PM ET, Sunday)
• Dodgers vs. Padres (4:10PM ET, Sunday)
• Yankees vs. Red Sox (7:20PM ET, Sunday)

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Conclusion

Our MLB best bets are locked and loaded for June 28, 2026, featuring plays such as Mets ML vs. Phillies and Mets +1.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.