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Bucks vs. Grizzlies prediction: Why Memphis is favored to win Friday's NBA matchup [12/26/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies predictions for NBA Friday.
NBA action continues on Friday at 8:00 PM ET as the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Grizzlies as the most likely winner of the Bucks vs. Grizzlies game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Grizzlies lineup will feature stars like Jaren Jackson, Ja Morant and Santi Aldama, while the Bucks will be led by Kevin Porter, Ryan Rollins and Bobby Portis.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Bucks vs. Grizzlies prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA matchup between the Bucks and Grizzlies 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Grizzlies a 69% chance of defeating the Bucks. Our predicted final score has the Grizzlies winning 117-111.
According to our model, the bookies have got it right, and the Bucks and Grizzlies each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 228.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of going over.
Bucks vs. Grizzlies odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bucks | Grizzlies |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +5.5 (-106) | -5.5 (-102) |
| Moneyline | +160 | -185 |
| Total | o228.5 (-105) | u228.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bucks vs. Grizzlies picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Grizzlies -5.5 | -102 |
| Moneyline | Grizzlies | -185 |
| Total | Over 228.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Grizzlies to win.
Bucks vs. Grizzlies player props
NBA prop bets are a popular way to wager on the Milwaukee vs. Memphis game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at FedExForum.
Kevin Porter is expected to lead the Bucks with 21 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists, while Jaren Jackson is projected to have 18 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists for the Grizzlies.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Bucks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Bucks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Porter | 21 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 47 |
| Ryan Rollins | 19 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 38 |
| Bobby Portis | 18 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 36 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 16 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Myles Turner | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
Grizzlies prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Grizzlies:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson | 18 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Ja Morant | 17 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| Santi Aldama | 16 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 36 |
| Cam Spencer | 14 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 31 |
| Jaylen Wells | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
Bucks vs. Grizzlies game-day updates and essential details
Friday's matchup between the Grizzlies and Bucks at FedExForum is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Date: Friday, December 26, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: FedExForum
Conclusion
We predict the Grizzlies, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat the Bucks on Friday, with Kevin Porter projected for a game-high 47 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Bucks vs. Grizzlies insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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