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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, December 26, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/26.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, December 26, 2025—are live with the Trail Blazers' Shaedon Sharpe projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Sharpe, Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 26, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 17.0% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.7% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.4% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.1% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 14.1% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.9% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 13.6% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.3% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.1% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 13.0% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 12.9% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 12.9% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 12.8% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.6% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 12.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 26, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 5.9% | +800 | 17.1% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 3.5% | +900 | 13.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 2.8% | +900 | 12.8% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 1.9% | +1000 | 11.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 0.6% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 0.2% | +850 | 10.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/26.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, December 26, 2025, Shaedon Sharpe, Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam lead our first basket projections, with Sharpe shaping as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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