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Read Article Marlins vs. Twins prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [5/14/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins predictions for MLB Thursday.
The Minnesota Twins will face the Miami Marlins, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Target Field on Thursday, beginning at 1:40 PM ET.
The Twins will start Zebby Matthews (0-0, 0.00 ERA), while the Marlins have opted for Braxton Garrett (0-0, 0.00 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Twins a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Marlins.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's Marlins vs. Twins matchup, including best bets and picks.
Marlins vs. Twins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Marlins and Twins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Twins a 52% chance of beating the Marlins.
According to our model, the Marlins (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 55% chance of going over.
Marlins vs. Twins odds [5/14/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Marlins | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-235) | -1.5 (+175) |
| Moneyline | -110 | -105 |
| Total | o8.5 (-115) | u8.5 (-103) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Marlins vs. Twins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Twins -1.5 | +175 |
| Moneyline | Twins | -105 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Marlins vs. Twins game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Twins and Marlins at Target Field is scheduled to start at 1:40 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins
- Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
- Time: 1:40 PM ET/10:40AM PT
- Venue: Target Field
Conclusion
We predict the Twins, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Marlins in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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