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Heat vs. Hawks prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Friday's NBA game [12/26/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks predictions for NBA Friday.
The Atlanta Hawks will square off with the Miami Heat in NBA action at State Farm Arena on Friday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Hawks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Hawks lineup will feature stars like Jalen Johnson, Trae Young and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, while the Heat will be led by Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo and Jaime Jaquez.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Heat vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's NBA matchup between the Heat and Hawks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 60% chance of beating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Hawks winning 124-121.
According to our model, the Hawks (-2.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 247.5-point over/under has a 55% chance of staying under.
Heat vs. Hawks odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Heat | Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-105) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -146 |
| Total | o247.5 (-114) | u247.5 (-106) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Heat vs. Hawks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawks -2.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Hawks | -146 |
| Total | Under 247.5 | -106 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 247.5 total points.
Heat vs. Hawks player props
NBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Friday's Heat vs. Hawks matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at State Farm Arena.
Norman Powell is expected to lead the Heat with 23 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Jalen Johnson is projected to have 25 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists for the Hawks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Heat prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 23 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 38 |
| Bam Adebayo | 18 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 40 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 17 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 37 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 34 |
| Kel'el Ware | 13 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 32 |
Hawks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Hawks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 25 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 56 |
| Trae Young | 23 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 48 |
| N. Alexander-Walker | 17 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 32 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 16 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 40 |
| Dyson Daniels | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 37 |
Heat vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details
Friday's matchup between the Hawks and Heat at State Farm Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Date: Friday, December 26, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: State Farm Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Friday, with Jalen Johnson projected for a game-high 56 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Hawks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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