Heat vs. Hawks prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Friday's NBA game [12/26/2025]

The Atlanta Hawks will take on the Miami Heat in NBA action at State Farm Arena on Friday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Hawks game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Hawks lineup will feature stars like Jalen Johnson, Trae Young and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, while the Heat will be led by Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez and Andrew Wiggins.

This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Heat vs. Hawks prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA matchup between the Heat and Hawks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Hawks a 61% chance of defeating the Heat. Our predicted final score has the Hawks winning 125-122.

According to our model, the Heat (+2.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 250.5 points has a 55% chance of staying under.

Heat vs. Hawks odds

We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Heat	Hawks
Spread	+2.5 (+100)	-2.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+132	-150
Total	o250.5 (-108)	u250.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Heat vs. Hawks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Heat +2.5	+100
Moneyline	Hawks	-150
Total	Under 250.5	-108

According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Under 250.5 total points.

Heat vs. Hawks player props

Looking for Heat vs. Hawks NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at State Farm Arena.

Norman Powell is expected to lead the Heat with 24 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists, while Jalen Johnson is projected to have 24 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists for the Hawks.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Heat prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Norman Powell	24	4	3	3	38
Jaime Jaquez	18	6	6	1	40
Andrew Wiggins	18	5	3	2	36
Kel'el Ware	15	12	1	1	37
Davion Mitchell	11	3	7	1	29

Hawks prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Hawks:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Jalen Johnson	24	10	7	2	55
Trae Young	23	3	11	3	48
N. Alexander-Walker	17	4	3	3	31
Onyeka Okongwu	16	9	3	2	39
Dyson Daniels	13	7	5	1	37

Heat vs. Hawks game-day updates and essential details

Friday's game between the Hawks and Heat at State Farm Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
• Date: Friday, December 26, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: State Farm Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Hawks, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Heat on Friday, with Jalen Johnson projected for a game-high 55 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Hawks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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