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Heat vs. Hawks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Heat vs. Hawks NBA game on December 26, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
126
111
Dec 27, 12AM State Farm Arena
Dec 27, 12AM State Farm Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 32 | 31 | 35 | 28 | 126 |
Hawks | 32 | 19 | 36 | 24 | 111 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
>99%
<1%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Heat | 32 | 31 | 35 | 28 | 126 |
Hawks | 32 | 19 | 36 | 24 | 111 |
Q4 00:33 Hawks misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:42 Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:05 Heat misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:27 Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point driving layup (Trae Young assists)
Q4 1:31 Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:34 Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:49 Hawks makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:16 Heat misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:29 Hawks makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:33 Hawks misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Heat turnover
Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+3
Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot
126-111
Kel'el Ware personal foul
+1
Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 1 of 2
123-110
+1
Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 2 of 2
126-111
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point driving layup (Trae Young assists)
126-111
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
+2
Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot
126-111
Andrew Wiggins misses two point jump shot
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
126-111
Andrew Wiggins personal foul
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
126-111
Hawks personal foul
Norman Powell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
126-111
Hawks violation
Trae Young offensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
+2
Norman Powell makes two point driving layup (Davion Mitchell assists)
117-102
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jalen Johnson turnover (discontinue dribble)
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell)
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
117-102
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
117-100
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
115-100
+2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point running layup (Jalen Johnson assists)
113-100
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Pelle Larsson misses two point jump shot
Davion Mitchell shooting foul (Trae Young draws the foul)
+1
Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 2
113-97
+1
Trae Young makes regular free throw 2 of 2
126-111
+2
Norman Powell makes two point driving layup
119-104
Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker)
Hawks turnover
+2
Nikola Jovic makes two point jump shot
119-104
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Jalen Johnson misses three point jump shot
+3
Pelle Larsson makes three point bank jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
117-102
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
126-111
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Trae Young makes two point jump shot
104-96
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses two point driving layup
+2
Asa Newell makes two point running dunk (Jalen Johnson assists)
104-96
Heat 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Nikola Jovic, Norman Powell)
Asa Newell defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point cutting layup
Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound
Kasparas Jakucionis misses two point driving layup
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
126-111
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
126-111
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
102-89
Hawks 60 second timeout
Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Asa Newell, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
+2
Dru Smith makes two point jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)
126-111
Hawks turnover
Heat personal foul
Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Asa Newell, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
126-111
Hawks turnover
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Hawks turnover
Hawks 60 second timeout
Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
+2
Andrew Wiggins makes two point jump shot
98-87
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses two point jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Hawks personal foul
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
126-111
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
126-111
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
119-104
Asa Newell shooting foul (Nikola Jovic draws the foul)
+1
Nikola Jovic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
126-111
+1
Nikola Jovic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
126-111
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
119-104
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
Heat personal foul
Nikola Jovic misses heave shot
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+1
Mouhamed Gueye makes regular free throw 1 of 2
126-111
+1
Mouhamed Gueye makes regular free throw 2 of 2
126-111
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
End of 3rd Quarter.
Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
Dru Smith offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
119-104
Heat misses two point jump shot
Nickeil Alexander-Walker turnover (Dru Smith steals)
+2
Nikola Jovic makes two point jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)
119-104
Heat personal foul
+1
Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 2
119-104
+1
Trae Young makes regular free throw 2 of 2
126-111
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Vit Krejci makes two point jump shot
117-102
+3
Kasparas Jakucionis makes three point jump shot
117-102
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Trae Young misses three point running pullup jump shot
Trae Young defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Heat personal foul
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Nikola Jovic misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
+1
Dru Smith makes regular free throw 2 of 2
117-102
Trae Young shooting foul (Dru Smith draws the foul)
+1
Dru Smith makes regular free throw 1 of 2
117-102
Dru Smith defensive rebound
Vit Krejci misses three point jump shot
+2
Andrew Wiggins makes two point putback layup
79-75
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Mouhamed Gueye personal foul (Jaime Jaquez Jr. draws the foul)
Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Hawks 60 second timeout
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
79-75
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Norman Powell misses three point stepback jump shot
Trae Young turnover (bad pass) (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)
Hawks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
79-75
Norman Powell personal foul
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
79-75
Hawks personal foul
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Nikola Jovic, Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 1
79-75
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
102-89
Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
+2
Jalen Johnson makes two point driving floating jump shot
79-75
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot
Hawks personal foul
Heat defensive rebound
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point jump shot
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point driving hook shot
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Kel'el Ware misses three point running jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Zaccharie Risacher misses two point jump shot
+2
Norman Powell makes two point jump shot
79-75
+2
Onyeka Okongwu makes two point jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
79-75
+3
Kel'el Ware makes three point jump shot (Pelle Larsson assists)
79-75
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
98-87
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Norman Powell misses three point jump shot
Norman Powell offensive rebound
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses three point jump shot
Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Zaccharie Risacher)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
79-75
Heat 60 second timeout
Davion Mitchell turnover (Jalen Johnson steals)
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses two point jump shot
+2
Kel'el Ware makes two point jump shot
79-75
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
Davion Mitchell misses two point jump shot
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Jalen Johnson misses two point turnaround jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Trae Young makes three point jump shot
79-75
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point cutting layup (Andrew Wiggins assists)
79-75
+2
Onyeka Okongwu makes two point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
71-64
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Hawks turnover
Heat turnover
Heat personal foul
+1
Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 2
71-64
+1
Trae Young makes regular free throw 2 of 2
71-64
+2
Davion Mitchell makes two point driving layup
67-57
Heat personal foul
+1
Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 2
71-64
+1
Trae Young makes regular free throw 2 of 2
71-64
Heat turnover
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
71-64
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Hawks turnover
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
67-57
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Kel'el Ware turnover (bad pass) (Dyson Daniels steals)
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
71-64
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
+2
Jalen Johnson makes two point driving finger roll layup (Trae Young assists)
63-51
Heat misses three point jump shot
End of 1st Half.
Heat offensive rebound
Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell)
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Andrew Wiggins misses three point pullup jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. turnover
Onyeka Okongwu turnover
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
63-51
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses two point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Andrew Wiggins, Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Davion Mitchell personal foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
63-51
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
+2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point driving finger roll layup
63-51
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+3
Norman Powell makes three point jump shot
63-51
Hawks turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
63-51
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Heat turnover (shot clock violation)
Norman Powell misses three point pullup jump shot
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Heat 60 second timeout
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
47-46
+2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point cutting layup (Davion Mitchell assists)
47-46
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
+2
Pelle Larsson makes two point jump shot (Norman Powell assists)
47-46
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Trae Young turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Norman Powell turnover (bad pass) (Dyson Daniels steals)
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Davion Mitchell personal foul (Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws the foul)
+2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point jump shot
47-45
+1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes regular free throw 1 of 1
47-46
Davion Mitchell turnover
Heat 60 second timeout
Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
47-43
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Pelle Larsson misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
47-41
Kel'el Ware offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
47-39
Heat misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Heat turnover
Hawks personal foul
Dyson Daniels turnover (offensive foul)
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell, Nikola Jovic, Norman Powell)
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
45-39
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
42-39
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
42-36
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
40-36
Heat turnover
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
39-34
Hawks personal foul
Instant replay
+1
Nikola Jovic makes regular free throw 1 of 2
40-34
Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
Asa Newell defensive rebound
Hawks turnover
Hawks personal foul
Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Asa Newell defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Heat offensive rebound
Hawks personal foul
Heat misses three point jump shot
Hawks turnover
Hawks personal foul
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 1 of 2
35-34
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
36-34
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
34-34
Keaton Wallace defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Keaton Wallace misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
34-32
Hawks turnover
Heat turnover
Hawks turnover
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
32-32
End of 1st Quarter.
Heat lineup change (Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Hawks lineup change (Keaton Wallace, Asa Newell, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci, Zaccharie Risacher)
Heat misses two point jump shot
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
Heat personal foul
+1
Mouhamed Gueye makes regular free throw 1 of 3
30-31
+1
Mouhamed Gueye makes regular free throw 2 of 3
30-32
Mouhamed Gueye misses regular free throw 3 of 3
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Hawks offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Trae Young defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
Mouhamed Gueye misses two point tip layup
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Hawks personal foul
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Heat offensive rebound
+1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes regular free throw 2 of 2
30-30
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
29-30
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
29-27
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
29-24
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
Hawks personal foul
+1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
25-24
+1
Kasparas Jakucionis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
26-24
Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
24-23
Heat personal foul
Heat lineup change (Kasparas Jakucionis, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
24-24
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
24-21
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
Heat misses two point jump shot
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
24-18
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Hawks turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
24-15
Hawks 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, Norman Powell, Dru Smith, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Vit Krejci)
Kel'el Ware defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
22-15
Hawks turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
20-15
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
Hawks 60 second timeout
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.)
Hawks lineup change (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Mouhamed Gueye, Zaccharie Risacher)
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
18-15
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
Hawks misses three point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
16-15
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
14-15
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
14-13
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
14-11
Hawks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
14-9
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
14-7
+2
Hawks makes two point jump shot
11-6
Heat personal foul
+1
Trae Young makes regular free throw 1 of 1
11-7
Hawks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Heat misses three point jump shot
Hawks turnover
Hawks personal foul
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
10-4
+1
Norman Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
11-4
Norman Powell defensive rebound
Hawks misses two point jump shot
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
9-4
Heat personal foul
Jalen Johnson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Hawks offensive rebound
+1
Jalen Johnson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
7-4
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
7-3
+3
Hawks makes three point jump shot
5-3
+3
Heat makes three point jump shot
5-0
Hawks personal foul
Hawks turnover
+2
Heat makes two point jump shot
2-0
Heat lineup change (Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, Norman Powell)
Kel'el Ware vs. Onyeka Okongwu (Pelle Larsson gains possession)
Hawks lineup change (Trae Young, Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Zaccharie Risacher)
Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Heat vs. Hawks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Heat vs. Hawks
- Date: Friday, December 26, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: State Farm Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Hawks favored at -3
- Total (Over/Under): 250.5
- Moneyline Odds: Heat +130, Hawks -148
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Heat: 39%
- Hawks: 61%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Heat 123-126 Hawks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Heat a win probability of 39%, while the Hawks have a win probability of 61%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Hawks are more likely to beat the Heat in the NBA game at State Farm Arena on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Heat vs. Hawks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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