Men's college basketball picks today: New Year's Day best bets include UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal State Fullerton play [1/1/2026]

Cal State Fullerton +4.5 (-105)

• Edge: 9.9%
• Probability: 61.1%
• Matchup: UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal State Fullerton (10:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has identified value on Cal State Fullerton +4.5 at -105 odds. A 61.1% probability produces an edge of 9.9%, making this the strongest play for today's men's college basketball slate.

Cal State Fullerton ML (+188)

• Edge: 9.4%
• Probability: 44.1%
• Matchup: UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal State Fullerton (10:00PM ET, Thursday)

Cal State Fullerton ML carries a 9.4% edge and a probability of 44.1% at +188 odds, according to our model.

Illinois-Chicago +5.5 (-108)

• Edge: 9.1%
• Probability: 61%
• Matchup: Murray State vs. Illinois-Chicago (9:00PM ET, Thursday)

Illinois-Chicago +5.5 vs. Murray State at -108 odds shows a 9.1% edge, supported by a 61% probability in simulations.

Illinois-Chicago ML (+220)

• Edge: 7.2%
• Probability: 38.4%
• Matchup: Murray State vs. Illinois-Chicago (9:00PM ET, Thursday)

A 7.2% edge and 38.4% probability make Illinois-Chicago at the moneyline at a value play in the Murray State vs. Illinois-Chicago matchup, per our model.

SIU-Edwardsville -10.5 (-102)

• Edge: 5.9%
• Probability: 56.4%
• Matchup: Southern Indiana vs. SIU-Edwardsville (4:30PM ET, Thursday)

SIU-Edwardsville -10.5 at -102 odds presents a 5.9% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 56.4%.

Bradley +5.5 (-115)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 58%
• Matchup: Bradley vs. Belmont (7:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model finds value on Bradley +5.5 at -115 odds, supported by an edge of 4.6%.

North Florida vs. Austin Peay under 162.5 points (-108)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 56.2%
• Matchup: North Florida vs. Austin Peay (8:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has uncovered value on North Florida vs. Austin Peay under 162.5 points at -108 odds. A 56.2% probability produces a 4.2% edge, making this a strong play for today's men's college basketball action.

Weber State ML (-120)

• Edge: 4.2%
• Probability: 58.8%
• Matchup: Portland State vs. Weber State (4:00PM ET, Thursday)

A 4.2% edge on a 58.8% probability makes Weber State to win at -120 odds a solid value play in today's Portland State vs. Weber State matchup.

Oakland vs. Youngstown State under 156.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 3.8%
• Probability: 55.1%
• Matchup: Oakland vs. Youngstown State (1:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model projects value on under 156.5 points at -105 odds. A 55.1% probability produces a 3.8% edge, making the under the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.

Central Arkansas +1.5 (-105)

• Edge: 3.5%
• Probability: 54.8%
• Matchup: North Florida vs. Austin Peay (2:00PM ET, Thursday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Central Arkansas +1.5 at -105 odds shows a 54.8% probability and a 3.5% edge.

NCAAM best bets summary: Thursday, 1/1/2026

As of 4:01AM ET, here are our top men's college basketball bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal State Fullerton	Cal State Fullerton +4.5	-105 @ BetMGM	9.9%	61.1%
UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal State Fullerton	Cal State Fullerton ML	+188 @ FanDuel	9.4%	44.1%
Murray State vs. Illinois-Chicago	Illinois-Chicago +5.5	-108 @ DraftKings	9.1%	61%
Murray State vs. Illinois-Chicago	Illinois-Chicago ML	+220 @ FanDuel	7.2%	38.4%
Southern Indiana vs. SIU-Edwardsville	SIU-Edwardsville -10.5	-102 @ DraftKings	5.9%	56.4%
Bradley vs. Belmont	Bradley +5.5	-115 @ BetMGM	4.6%	58%
North Florida vs. Austin Peay	Under 162.5 Points	-108 @ DraftKings	4.2%	56.2%
Portland State vs. Weber State	Weber State ML	-120 @ BetMGM	4.2%	58.8%
Oakland vs. Youngstown State	Under 156.5 Points	-105 @ FanDuel	3.8%	55.1%
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Central Arkansas	Central Arkansas +1.5	-105 @ BetMGM	3.5%	54.8%

List of upcoming men's college basketball games to bet on now

• Samford vs. Virginia Military (1:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Oakland vs. Youngstown State (1:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina (1:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Stetson vs. North Alabama (1:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota (2:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Green Bay vs. Purdue Fort Wayne (2:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Milwaukee vs. Wright State (2:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Jacksonville vs. Lipscomb (2:00PM ET, Thursday)
• Florida Gulf Coast vs. Central Arkansas (2:00PM ET, Thursday)
• California Baptist vs. Texas-Arlington (3:00PM ET, Thursday)

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Conclusion

Our men's college basketball best bets are locked and loaded for January 1, 2026, featuring plays such as Cal State Fullerton +4.5 and Cal State Fullerton ML. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate college basketball insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are grounded in current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

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