Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons prediction: Hawks favored to win Friday's AFL Round 17 matchup [7/3/2026]
Get Hawthorn Hawks vs Melbourne Demons predictions for AFL Friday.
The Hawthorn Hawks and Melbourne Demons will lock horns in the Australian Football League (AFL) at York Park on Friday, starting at 11:15 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Demons vs. Hawks game.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Hawks vs. Demons prediction: Who will win Round 17 game?
Our famous predictive model gives the Hawks a 68.4% chance of beating the Demons.
Melbourne vs. Hawthorn odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Demons | Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +190 | -244 |
| Line (Spread) | +14.5 (-115) | -14.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Demons vs. Hawks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Melbourne +14.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Hawks | -244 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Hawks to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Hawks vs. Demons game-day updates and essential details
Friday's Australian rules football action between the Hawks and Demons at York Park is scheduled to commence at 11:15 PM ET.
- Who: Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks
- Date: Friday, July 3, 2026
- Time: 11:15 PM ET/8:15PM PT
- Venue: York Park
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 68.4% win probability, will likely beat the Demons in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
