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Read Article Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans prediction: Lions favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 16 matchup [6/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Brisbane Lions and Sydney Swans will lock horns in the Australian Football League (AFL) at The Gabba on Thursday, starting at 5:30 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Lions as the most likely winner of the Swans vs. Lions game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Lions vs. Swans prediction: Who will win Round 16 game?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Swans and Lions, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lions a 52.3% chance of beating the Swans.
According to our model, the Lions (+1.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 183.5-point over/under has a 52.0% chance of staying under,.
Sydney vs. Brisbane odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Swans | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -135 | +105 |
| Line (Spread) | -1.5 (-115) | +1.5 (-115) |
| Total | o183.5 (-115) | u183.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Swans vs. Lions picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions +1.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Lions | +105 |
| Total | Under 183.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lions to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lions vs. Swans game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football game between the Lions and Swans at The Gabba is scheduled to commence at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions
- Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: The Gabba
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 52.3% win probability, will likely beat the Swans in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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