Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Odds - May 6, 2022

The Tampa Bay Lightning face the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2022 NHL Playoffs at Amalie Arena on Friday, commencing at 7:30PM ET.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the NHL to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

A total of 16 teams, including the Maple Leafs and Lightning, reached the NHL Playoffs 2022, which includes 4 rounds – the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to 4 wins moving on to the next round of the competition.

Dimers' free betting picks for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning, plus game predictions, best odds and player props, are detailed below.

Who will win Maple Leafs vs. Lightning?

Using cutting-edge machine learning and data, Dimers.com has simulated Friday's Maple Leafs-Lightning NHL Playoffs game 10,000 times.

Dimers' renowned predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, gives the Lightning a 54% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.

More: Free Betting Analysis for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds

• Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+200), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-238)
• Moneyline: Lightning -120, Maple Leafs +100
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-120)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Lightning are -1.5 favorites versus the Maple Leafs, with +200 at Caesars Sportsbook the best odds currently available.

For the underdog Maple Leafs (+1.5) to cover the puck line, Caesars Sportsbook also has the best odds currently on offer at -238.

BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at -120. That means you can risk $120 to win $100, for a total payout of $220, if they get the W.

On the other hand, BetMGM also has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at +100, where you can risk $100 to win $100, for a total payout of $200, if they come out on top.

The Over/Under for total goals scored is set at 6.5 with PointsBet, which currently has the best odds for the Over at +105, while BetMGM currently has the best odds for the Under at -120.

As always, check out the sportsbooks you have access to in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) are a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal Over/Under is a 52% chance of going Under.

More: Predictions for Every NHL Game

Best Bets for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

• Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 @ +200 via Caesars Sportsbook
• Moneyline: Lightning @ -120 via BetMGM (54% probability)
• Total: Over 6.5 @ +105 via PointsBet

Dimers' best bets are based on complex simulations and betting intelligence to serve you the best possible plays 24/7/365.

Even though the Maple Leafs are more likely to cover the puck line, our best bet of Lightning -1.5 is based on the likelihood of that happening, according to DimersBOT, and the top odds available.

Furthermore, despite the Under being more likely to hit on this occasion, Over 6.5 is our best bet owing to the better odds (+105) that are available from PointsBet.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Probabilities

Use our dynamic widget below to see up-to-date Moneyline, Over/Under and Puck Line probabilities and odds for Toronto vs. Tampa Bay, and click or tap on See Matchup for more.

Dimers has full betting coverage of Friday's Maple Leafs-Lightning matchup, including pregame predictions, computer picks, and live scores.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning? The data is in.

Listed below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Maple Leafs and Lightning.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you discover the best prop picks for Friday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.

DimersBOT gives Matthews a 9.5% chance of scoring the first goal at Amalie Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 46.7% chance of netting an anytime goal.

Scroll down for our full list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 9.5% probability
• William Nylander: 5.2% probability
• Mitch Marner: 4.8% probability
• John Tavares: 4.7% probability
• Pierre Engvall: 3.0% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 7.1% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 6.6% probability
• Ross Colton: 6.5% probability
• Brayden Point: 4.8% probability
• Alex Killorn: 3.9% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 46.7% probability
• William Nylander: 29.1% probability
• Mitch Marner: 27.3% probability
• John Tavares: 26.3% probability
• Ilya Mikheyev: 17.8% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 36.0% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 35.1% probability
• Ross Colton: 32.4% probability
• Brayden Point: 27.9% probability
• Alex Killorn: 23.6% probability

Remember, DimersBOT updates regularly, so keep checking this article for any changes to our betting analysis ahead of Maple Leafs vs. Lightning on Friday May 6, 2022.

Risk-Free Bet for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning 2022 Game Info

When do the Lightning play the Maple Leafs in the NHL Playoffs?

• Date: Friday May 6, 2022
• Time: 7:30PM ET / 4:30PM PT
• Venue: Amalie Arena

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