Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Odds - May 12, 2022

The Tampa Bay Lightning take on the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2022 NHL Playoffs at Amalie Arena on Thursday, commencing at 7:30PM ET.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs is the National Hockey League's postseason elimination tournament to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

A total of 16 teams, including the Maple Leafs and Lightning, made the 2022 NHL Playoffs, which consists of 4 rounds – the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round of the NHL Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to 4 wins advancing to the next round.

Dimers' best betting picks for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning, plus game predictions, best odds and player props, are detailed below.

Who will win Maple Leafs vs. Lightning?

Using high-tech computer power and data, Dimers.com has simulated Thursday's Maple Leafs-Lightning NHL Playoffs matchup 10,000 times.

Dimers' independent predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, currently gives the Lightning a 56% chance of winning against the Maple Leafs.

More: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Simulated 10,000 Times

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds

• Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+175), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-200)
• Moneyline: Lightning -140, Maple Leafs +125
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-115/+104)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Lightning are -1.5 favorites against the Maple Leafs, with +175 at DraftKings Sportsbook the best odds currently available.

For the underdog Maple Leafs (+1.5) to cover the puck line, BetMGM has the best odds currently on offer at -200.

BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at -140. That means you can risk $140 to win $100, for a total payout of $240, if they get the W.

Elsewhere, DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at +125, where you can bet $100 to profit $125, earning a total payout of $225, if they win.

The Over/Under for total goals scored sits at 6.5 with Caesars Sportsbook, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -115, while FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best odds for the Under at +104.

As always, make sure you check the sportsbooks you have access to in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) are a 66% chance of covering the puck line, while the Over/Under total of 6.5 goals is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

More: Live Scores for All Major Sports

Best Bets for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 @ -200 via BetMGM (66% probability)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs @ +125 via DraftKings Sportsbook
• Total: Under 6.5 @ +104 via FanDuel Sportsbook (50% probability)

Dimers' best bets are based on world-class simulations and betting intelligence to serve you the best possible plays 24/7.

While the Lightning are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, betting on the Maple Leafs moneyline is the best option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the betting odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Dimers.com is one of the keys to achieving long-term profitability as a sports bettor.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Probabilities

Use our widget below to view the latest Moneyline, Over/Under and Puck Line probabilities and odds for Toronto vs. Tampa Bay, and click or tap on See Matchup for more.

Dimers has full coverage of Thursday's Maple Leafs-Lightning matchup, including pregame predictions, computer picks, and live win probabilities.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning? The latest data is in.

Listed below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Maple Leafs and Lightning.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you choose the best prop picks for Thursday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.

DimersBOT gives Matthews an 8.6% chance of scoring the first goal at Amalie Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 46.2% chance of registering an anytime goal.

Scroll down for our full list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 8.6% probability
• William Nylander: 5.3% probability
• Mitch Marner: 5.2% probability
• John Tavares: 4.6% probability
• Ilya Mikheyev: 3.7% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 7.6% probability
• Steven Stamkos: 7.3% probability
• Brayden Point: 6.0% probability
• Ross Colton: 5.1% probability
• Alex Killorn: 4.3% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 46.2% probability
• Mitch Marner: 28.9% probability
• William Nylander: 27.7% probability
• John Tavares: 25.1% probability
• Ilya Mikheyev: 20.4% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 38.8% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 38.8% probability
• Ross Colton: 31.9% probability
• Brayden Point: 30.2% probability
• Alex Killorn: 24.3% probability

Remember, DimersBOT updates regularly, so keep checking this page for any changes to our betting analysis ahead of Maple Leafs vs. Lightning on Thursday May 12, 2022.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning $10 Live Free Bet

Free bet alert! New and current BetMGM users can unlock a $10 Free Bet to use on any sport when they place a $50+ live bet on Toronto vs. Tampa Bay this Thursday.

Simply join BetMGM using this exclusive link, opt in to the NHL Hit the Ice promotion, and place a $50+ live bet on Maple Leafs vs. Lightning to trigger your $10 Free Bet reward. How good is that!

Note: when you click or tap on a link on Dimers that leads to a third-party website that we have a commercial arrangement with (such as a sportsbook), we may earn a referral fee.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning 2022 Game Info

Thursday's game between the Lightning and Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 7:30PM ET.

• Date: Thursday May 12, 2022
• Time: 7:30PM ET / 4:30PM PT
• Venue: Amalie Arena

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What NHL games are on tonight?

Now you've got the 411 on Maple Leafs vs. Lightning, take a look at the latest betting analysis for all upcoming NHL games in Dimers' NHL Bet Hub. There you can find probabilities and odds, as well as our best bets for each and every NHL matchup.

Want a pick for the Puck Line? You got it. How about the Over/Under? Yup, got that too. The Moneyline? Yes sir. And these picks are good, I mean REALLY good. Take a look now!