Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Odds - Apr 21, 2022

The Tampa Bay Lightning take on the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action at Amalie Arena on Thursday, beginning at 8:00PM ET.

Dimers' top betting picks for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning, as well as game predictions, best odds and player props, are featured below.

Who will win Maple Leafs vs. Lightning?

Based on trusted machine learning and data, Dimers.com has simulated Thursday's Maple Leafs-Lightning NHL matchup 10,000 times.

Dimers' popular predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, currently gives the Lightning a 55% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.

More: Free Betting Analysis for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds

• Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+188), Maple Leafs +1.5 (-200)
• Moneyline: Lightning -134, Maple Leafs +115
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+115)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Lightning are -1.5 favorites against the Maple Leafs, with +188 at FanDuel Sportsbook the best odds currently available.

For the underdog Maple Leafs (+1.5) to cover the puck line, BetMGM has the best odds currently on offer at -200.

FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at -134. That means you can risk $134 to win $100, for a total payout of $234, if they get the W.

Elsewhere, BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at +115, where you can bet $100 to profit $115, earning a total payout of $215, if they win.

The Over/Under for total goals scored is set at 6.5 with DraftKings Sportsbook, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -130, while Caesars Sportsbook currently has the best odds for the Under at +115.

As always, make sure you check the sportsbooks you can bet with in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) are a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal Over/Under is a 51% chance of going Over.

More: Best Bets for Every NHL Game

Best Bets for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 @ -200 via BetMGM (67% probability)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs @ +115 via BetMGM
• Total: Under 6.5 @ +115 via Caesars Sportsbook (2.7% edge)

Dimers' best bets are based on world-class simulations and betting intelligence to serve you the best possible plays every time.

While the Lightning are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, taking the Maple Leafs moneyline is the best option due to the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the betting odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges seen on Dimers is pivotal to being profitable in the long run.

Furthermore, despite the Over being more likely to hit on this occasion, Under 6.5 is our best bet on account of the better odds (+115) that are available from Caesars Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Probabilities

Use our dynamic widget below to view up-to-date Moneyline, Over/Under and Puck Line probabilities and odds for Toronto vs. Tampa Bay, and click or tap on See Matchup for more.

Dimers has full betting coverage of Thursday's Maple Leafs-Lightning matchup, including pregame predictions, computer picks, and live win probabilities.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Player Props

Who will score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning? The data is in.

Featured below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Maple Leafs and Lightning.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you select the best prop bets for Thursday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Tampa Bay's Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.

DimersBOT gives Kucherov a 7.1% chance of scoring the first goal at Amalie Arena, while the Lightning star is a 35.6% chance of registering an anytime goal.

Scroll down for the full list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs

• William Nylander: 6.9% probability
• Mitch Marner: 6.6% probability
• John Tavares: 5.8% probability
• Ilya Mikheyev: 3.8% probability
• Michael Bunting: 3.6% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 7.1% probability
• Steven Stamkos: 5.7% probability
• Ross Colton: 5.6% probability
• Brayden Point: 5.2% probability
• Alex Killorn: 3.9% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Mitch Marner: 34.4% probability
• William Nylander: 33.8% probability
• John Tavares: 30.7% probability
• Ilya Mikheyev: 22.1% probability
• Pierre Engvall: 21.6% probability

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 35.6% probability
• Steven Stamkos: 31.9% probability
• Brayden Point: 30.6% probability
• Ross Colton: 28.3% probability
• Alex Killorn: 22.3% probability

Remember, DimersBOT updates often, so keep checking this page for the latest betting analysis ahead of Maple Leafs vs. Lightning on Thursday April 21, 2022.

Maple Leafs-Lightning $10 Live Free Bet

Free bet alert! New and existing BetMGM users can get a $10 Free Bet to use on any sport when they place a $50+ live bet on Toronto vs. Tampa Bay this Thursday.

Simply join BetMGM using this exclusive link, opt in to the NHL Hit the Ice promotion, and place a $50+ live bet on Maple Leafs vs. Lightning to earn your $10 Free Bet reward. How good is that!

Note: when you click or tap on a link on Dimers that leads to a third-party website that we have a commercial arrangement with (such as a sportsbook), we may earn a referral fee.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning 2022 Game Info

When do the Lightning play the Maple Leafs?

• Date: Thursday April 21, 2022
• Time: 8:00PM ET / 5:00PM PT
• Venue: Amalie Arena

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What NHL games are on tonight?

The Maple Leafs and Lightning aren't the only two NHL teams you can bet on tonight. DimersBOT never stops and we've got picks and best bets for each and every NHL game via our NHL Predictions section.

Not only do we provide with you first-class predictions, but we also have recommended bets for the Puck Line, Over/Under and Moneyline. Sound good? Hell yeah it does!