Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Odds - May 4, 2022

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning clash in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday, with puck drop at 7:30PM ET.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the National Hockey League to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.

Sixteen teams, including the Lightning and Maple Leafs, reached the NHL Playoffs 2022, which consists of 4 rounds – the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to 4 wins moving on to the next round of the competition.

Dimers' top betting picks for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, plus game predictions, best odds and player props, are featured in this article.

Who will win Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?

Using cutting-edge computer power and data, Dimers.com has simulated Wednesday's Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL Playoffs matchup 10,000 times.

Dimers' popular predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, gives the Maple Leafs a 53% chance of beating the Lightning.

More: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Simulated 10,000 Times

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game Odds

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190), Lightning +1.5 (-200)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs -135, Lightning +115
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-118)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Maple Leafs are -1.5 favorites against the Lightning, with +190 at Caesars Sportsbook the best odds currently available.

For the underdog Lightning (+1.5) to cover the puck line, BetMGM has the best odds currently on offer at -200.

DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at -135. That means you can risk $135 to win $100, for a total payout of $235, if they get the W.

Meanwhile, BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at +115, where you can put down $100 to profit $115, earning a total payout of $215, if they win.

The Over/Under for total goals scored is set at 6.5 with PointsBet, which currently has the best odds for the Over at +105, while FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best odds for the Under at -118.

As always, check out all the online sportsbooks that are available in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Lightning (+1.5) are a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the Over/Under total of 6.5 goals is a 51% chance of going Under.

More: Best Bets Today for All Major Sports

Best Bets for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

• Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 @ -200 via BetMGM (68% probability)
• Moneyline: Lightning @ +115 via BetMGM (0.1% edge)
• Total: Over 6.5 @ +105 via PointsBet (0.4% edge)

Dimers' best bets are based on world-class simulations and wagering intelligence to serve you the best possible plays 24/7/365.

While the Maple Leafs are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, betting on the Lightning moneyline is the best option because of the edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the sportsbooks' odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Dimers is pivotal to being profitable in the long run.

Furthermore, despite the Under being more likely to hit on this occasion, Over 6.5 is our best bet on account of the better odds (+105) that are available from PointsBet.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Betting Guide

Use our interactive widget below to see the latest Moneyline, Over/Under and Puck Line probabilities and odds for Tampa Bay vs. Toronto, and click or tap on See Matchup for more.

Dimers has full betting coverage of Wednesday's Lightning-Maple Leafs matchup, including pregame predictions, computer picks, and live win probabilities.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Player Props

Who will score the first goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs? The latest data is in.

Listed below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Lightning and Maple Leafs.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you choose the best prop picks for Wednesday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

DimersBOT gives Matthews a 10.7% chance of scoring the first goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 49.9% chance of registering an anytime goal.

Scroll down for the full list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 6.6% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 6.3% probability
• Ross Colton: 5.1% probability
• Brayden Point: 4.4% probability
• Alex Killorn: 4.2% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 10.7% probability
• Mitch Marner: 5.3% probability
• William Nylander: 4.8% probability
• John Tavares: 4.5% probability
• Ilya Mikheyev: 3.6% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Nikita Kucherov: 34.8% probability
• Steven Stamkos: 34.4% probability
• Ross Colton: 29.8% probability
• Brayden Point: 26.8% probability
• Alex Killorn: 22.7% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 49.9% probability
• William Nylander: 29.3% probability
• Mitch Marner: 29.2% probability
• John Tavares: 26.1% probability
• Ilya Mikheyev: 21.1% probability

Don't forget, DimersBOT updates regularly, so keep an eye on this page for any changes to our betting insights before Lightning vs. Maple Leafs on Wednesday May 4, 2022.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs $10 Live Free Bet

Free bet alert! New and existing BetMGM customers can unlock a $10 Free Bet to use on any sport when they place a $50+ live bet on Tampa Bay vs. Toronto this Wednesday.

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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs 2022 Game Info

When do the Maple Leafs play the Lightning in the NHL Playoffs?

• Date: Wednesday May 4, 2022
• Time: 7:30PM ET / 4:30PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Looking to join an online sportsbook and start betting on the NHL Playoffs today? We've got access to the best available sign-up offers in each legal betting state.

What other NHL games are on tonight?

The Lightning and Maple Leafs aren't the only two NHL teams you can bet on. DimersBOT never stops and we've got picks and top bets for every single NHL game via our NHL Predictions section.

Not only do we provide with you great predictions, but we also have recommended bets for the Puck Line, Over/Under and Moneyline. Sound good? Hell yeah it does!