Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Odds - May 2, 2022

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning lock horns in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs in the NHL at Scotiabank Arena on Monday, with puck drop at 7:30PM ET.

The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the NHL to decide the winner of the Stanley Cup.

A total of 16 teams, including the Lightning and Maple Leafs, reached the 2022 NHL Playoffs, which includes 4 rounds – the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to 4 wins progressing to the next round until a champion is crowned.

Dimers' top betting picks for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, plus game predictions, best odds and player props, are featured below.

Who will win Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?

Based on high-tech machine learning and data, Dimers.com has simulated Monday's Lightning-Maple Leafs NHL Playoffs game 10,000 times.

Dimers' proven predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, currently gives the Maple Leafs a 52% chance of beating the Lightning.

More: Free Betting Analysis for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Game Odds

• Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200), Lightning +1.5 (-225)
• Moneyline: Maple Leafs -115, Lightning +105
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-120)

Puck Line, Moneyline and Over/Under

The Maple Leafs are listed as -1.5 favorites versus the Lightning, with +200 at BetMGM the best odds currently available.

For the underdog Lightning (+1.5) to cover the puck line, DraftKings Sportsbook has the best odds currently on the market at -225.

BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at -115, which means you can risk $115 to win $100, for a total payout of $215, if they get the W.

On the other hand, DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Lightning at +105, where you can bet $100 to profit $105, earning a total payout of $205, if they win.

The Over/Under for total goals scored sits at 6.5 with BetMGM, which currently has the best odds for the Over at +100, as well as the best odds for the Under at -120.

As always, make sure you check the sportsbooks you can bet with in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

According to DimersBOT, the Lightning (+1.5) are a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal Over/Under is a 51% chance of going Under.

More: Predictions for Every NHL Matchup

Best Bets for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

• Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 @ -225 via DraftKings Sportsbook (68% probability)
• Moneyline: Lightning @ +105 via DraftKings Sportsbook
• Total: Over 6.5 @ +100 via BetMGM

Dimers' best bets are based on world-class simulations and wagering intelligence to help you make smarter decisions with the legal sportsbooks in the United States.

While the Maple Leafs are more likely to win the game, according to DimersBOT, taking the Lightning moneyline is the best option because of the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the sportsbooks' odds currently on offer.

Taking advantage of the edges published here at Dimers.com is pivotal to being profitable in the long run.

Furthermore, despite the Under being more likely to hit on this occasion, Over 6.5 is our best bet on account of the better odds (+100) that are available from BetMGM.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Probabilities

Use our interactive widget below to explore the latest Moneyline, Over/Under and Puck Line probabilities and odds for Tampa Bay vs. Toronto, and click or tap on See Matchup for more.

Dimers has full coverage of Monday's Lightning-Maple Leafs matchup, including pregame predictions, computer picks, and live scores.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Player Props

Who will score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs? The latest data is in.

Listed below are the most likely first goal and most likely anytime goal scorers for both the Lightning and Maple Leafs.

And you know what, we provide this information to you for FREE to help you choose the best prop picks for Monday's game.

According to DimersBOT, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.

DimersBOT gives Matthews an 11.6% chance of scoring the first goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the Maple Leafs star is a 51.5% chance of netting an anytime goal.

Scroll down for our complete list of first and anytime goal scorer probabilities.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 6.6% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 6.3% probability
• Ross Colton: 5.4% probability
• Brayden Point: 4.7% probability
• Alex Killorn: 3.9% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 11.6% probability
• William Nylander: 5.5% probability
• Mitch Marner: 5.0% probability
• John Tavares: 4.8% probability
• Ondrej Kase: 3.5% probability

Anytime Goal Scorer Prediction

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Steven Stamkos: 35.4% probability
• Nikita Kucherov: 35.0% probability
• Ross Colton: 29.9% probability
• Brayden Point: 27.1% probability
• Alex Killorn: 22.0% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 51.5% probability
• William Nylander: 29.8% probability
• John Tavares: 28.1% probability
• Mitch Marner: 27.5% probability
• Ilya Mikheyev: 21.8% probability

Remember, DimersBOT updates regularly, so keep an eye on this page for the latest betting analysis before Lightning vs. Maple Leafs on Monday May 2, 2022.

Risk-Free Bet for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs

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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs 2022 Game Info

When do the Maple Leafs play the Lightning in the NHL Playoffs?

• Date: Monday May 2, 2022
• Time: 7:30PM ET / 4:30PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

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Want more NHL analysis like this?

To get more NHL betting previews like you've just read for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs, all you've gotta do is visit Dimers' NHL Betting News section. It's that easy – they're all there!

We use the power of predictive analytics to find edges in the markets so we can publish the best NHL betting previews out there. We do this by comparing our own probabilities against the sportsbooks' odds (aka Vegas odds) the minute they go live.

So, get ahead of the game and beat the 'books today – it's only a click away.