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Aces vs. Sun prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [5/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Las Vegas Aces vs Connecticut Sun predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
WNBA action continues on Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET as the favored Las Vegas Aces lock horns with the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model predicts the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Sun game.
The Sun, with the likes of Brittney Griner, Aneesah Morrow and Diamond Miller, are set to take on the Aces, who feature A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Aces vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's WNBA game between the Aces and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Aces an 88% chance of defeating the Sun.
According to our model, the Sun (+13.5) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 60% chance of staying under.
Aces vs. Sun odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Aces | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -13.5 (-115) | +13.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -1000 | +680 |
| Total | o172.5 (-108) | u172.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aces vs. Sun picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sun +13.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Sun | +680 |
| Total | Under 172.5 | -110 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 172.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aces vs. Sun player props
Looking for Las Vegas vs. Connecticut WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.
A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 25 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Brittney Griner is projected to have 14 points, 7 rebounds and 1 assists for the Sun.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Aces prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 25 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 51 |
| Jackie Young | 17 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 36 |
| Chennedy Carter | 13 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| Jewell Loyd | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Chelsea Gray | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 30 |
Sun prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| Aneesah Morrow | 11 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 29 |
| Diamond Miller | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Kennedy Burke | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
| Saniya Rivers | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
Aces vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's action between the Sun and Aces at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun
- Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with an 88% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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