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Read Article Aces vs. Sun prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [5/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Las Vegas Aces vs Connecticut Sun predictions for WNBA Friday.
The Connecticut Sun and Las Vegas Aces will lock horns in the WNBA at Mohegan Sun Arena on Friday, with tipoff at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner of the Aces vs. Sun game.
The Sun, who have stars like Brittney Griner, Aneesah Morrow and Saniya Rivers, will face off against the Aces, who feature A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Aces vs. Sun prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's WNBA game between the Aces and Sun, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Aces an 86% chance of defeating the Sun.
According to our model, the Sun (+14.5) have a 64% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 171.5 points has a 59% chance of staying under.
Aces vs. Sun odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Aces | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -14.5 (-112) | +14.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -1200 | +800 |
| Total | o171.5 (-105) | u171.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aces vs. Sun picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sun +14.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Sun | +800 |
| Total | Under 171.5 | -108 |
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sun +14.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aces vs. Sun player props
WNBA prop bets are a great way to wager on Friday's Las Vegas vs. Connecticut game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mohegan Sun Arena.
A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 26 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Brittney Griner is projected to have 14 points, 7 rebounds and 1 assists for the Sun.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Aces prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 26 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 52 |
| Jackie Young | 17 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 36 |
| Chennedy Carter | 14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 24 |
| Chelsea Gray | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 30 |
| Jewell Loyd | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
Sun prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sun:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 29 |
| Aneesah Morrow | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 27 |
| Saniya Rivers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| Kennedy Burke | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Diamond Miller | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 |
Aces vs. Sun game-day updates and essential details
Friday's action between the Sun and Aces at Mohegan Sun Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun
- Date: Friday, May 15, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Sun in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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