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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, May 15, 2026
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/15.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, May 15, 2026—are live with the Pacers' Brittney Griner projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Griner, Kelsey Mitchell and Chennedy Carter lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 15, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 15.7% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 14.5% |
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 14.4% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 14.3% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 14.0% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 13.9% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 13.8% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 13.3% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 13.0% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 12.5% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 12.2% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 11.7% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 11.7% |
| Temi Fagbenle (Tempo) | 11.3% |
| Rickea Jackson (Sky) | 10.8% |
| Aneesah Morrow (Sun) | 10.4% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 10.4% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 10.3% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 10.1% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 9.8% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 9.7% |
| Brittney Sykes (Tempo) | 9.5% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 9.5% |
| Saniya Rivers (Sun) | 9.0% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.8% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 8.4% |
| Diamond Miller (Sun) | 8.3% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 8.2% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 8.1% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 8.0% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 7.9% |
| Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) | 7.8% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 7.7% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 7.6% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 7.5% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 7.4% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 7.2% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 6.8% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 6.6% |
| Cassandre Prosper (Mystics) | 6.4% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.3% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.3% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacy Sheldon | Sky | 1.6% | +1700 | 7.2% |
| Julie Allemand | Tempo | 1.5% | +1800 | 6.8% |
| Erica Wheeler | Sparks | 1.4% | +1400 | 8.0% |
| Georgia Amoore | Mystics | 1.2% | +1500 | 7.5% |
| Sophie Cunningham | Fever | 1.0% | +1400 | 7.7% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 1.0% | +1800 | 6.3% |
| Natasha Mack | Mercury | 0.8% | +1300 | 7.9% |
| Kiki Iriafen | Mystics | 0.7% | +650 | 14.0% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 0.7% | +1200 | 8.4% |
| Sonia Citron | Mystics | 0.6% | +1000 | 9.7% |
| Gabriela Jaquez | Sky | 0.3% | +1300 | 7.4% |
| Kelsey Mitchell | Fever | 0.2% | +600 | 14.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, May 15, 2026, Brittney Griner, Kelsey Mitchell and Chennedy Carter lead our first basket projections, while Jacy Sheldon shapes as the strongest value play at +1700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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