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WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, May 15, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/15.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, May 15, 2026—are live with the Raptors' Brittney Griner projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Griner, Marina Mabrey and A'ja Wilson lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 15, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Brittney Griner (Sun) | 16.5% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 14.9% |
| A'ja Wilson (Aces) | 14.3% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 14.3% |
| Kiki Iriafen (Mystics) | 14.0% |
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 13.9% |
| Chennedy Carter (Aces) | 13.7% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 13.6% |
| Kahleah Copper (Mercury) | 13.3% |
| Shakira Austin (Mystics) | 12.5% |
| Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) | 12.2% |
| Temi Fagbenle (Tempo) | 11.9% |
| Rickea Jackson (Sky) | 11.7% |
| Aneesah Morrow (Sun) | 11.5% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 11.3% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 11.2% |
| Jackie Young (Aces) | 10.5% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 10.5% |
| Brittney Sykes (Tempo) | 10.4% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 10.3% |
| Kiki Rice (Tempo) | 9.8% |
| Sonia Citron (Mystics) | 9.7% |
| Saniya Rivers (Sun) | 9.6% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 9.1% |
| DeWanna Bonner (Mercury) | 8.8% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 8.6% |
| Ariel Atkins (Sparks) | 8.1% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 8.1% |
| Natasha Mack (Mercury) | 7.9% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 7.8% |
| Valeriane Ayayi (Mercury) | 7.8% |
| Georgia Amoore (Mystics) | 7.5% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 7.2% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 7.1% |
| Julie Allemand (Tempo) | 7.0% |
| Kennedy Burke (Sun) | 6.8% |
| Cameron Brink (Sparks) | 6.8% |
| Cassandre Prosper (Mystics) | 6.4% |
| Chelsea Gray (Aces) | 6.3% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 6.2% |
| Aaliyah Edwards (Sun) | 5.5% |
| Jewell Loyd (Aces) | 5.2% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 15, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Allemand | Tempo | 1.5% | +1700 | 7.0% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 1.4% | +1300 | 8.6% |
| Natasha Mack | Mercury | 1.2% | +1400 | 7.9% |
| Gabriela Jaquez | Sky | 1.2% | +1600 | 7.1% |
| Georgia Amoore | Mystics | 1.2% | +1500 | 7.5% |
| Sophie Cunningham | Fever | 1.0% | +1500 | 7.2% |
| Chelsea Gray | Aces | 0.7% | +1700 | 6.3% |
| Kiki Iriafen | Mystics | 0.7% | +650 | 14.0% |
| Jacy Sheldon | Sky | 0.7% | +1700 | 6.2% |
| Sonia Citron | Mystics | 0.6% | +1000 | 9.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/15.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, May 15, 2026, Brittney Griner, Marina Mabrey and A'ja Wilson lead our first basket projections, while Julie Allemand shapes as the strongest value play at +1700. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media brands.
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