May 17, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, May 17, 2026
Read Article Aces vs. Dream prediction: Why Las Vegas is favored to win Sunday's WNBA game [5/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Las Vegas Aces vs Atlanta Dream predictions for WNBA Sunday.
The Atlanta Dream and Las Vegas Aces are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at State Farm Arena on Sunday, with tipoff at 1:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven WNBA model gives the Aces a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Dream.
The Dream, powered by Allisha Gray, Angel Reese and Naz Hillmon, will face off against the Aces, who feature A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chennedy Carter.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's Aces vs. Dream matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Aces vs. Dream prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Aces and Dream, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Aces a 52% chance of defeating the Dream.
According to our model, the Dream (+2.5) have a 58% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 56% chance of staying under.
Aces vs. Dream odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Aces | Dream |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | -144 | +125 |
| Total | o172.5 (-115) | u172.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Aces vs. Dream picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dream +2.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Dream | +125 |
| Total | Under 172.5 | -105 |
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream +2.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Aces vs. Dream player props
Betting on Aces vs. Dream WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at State Farm Arena.
A'ja Wilson is expected to lead the Aces with 24 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Allisha Gray is projected to have 18 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists for the Dream.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's WNBA first basket picks.
Aces prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Aces are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 24 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 49 |
| Jackie Young | 16 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 33 |
| Chennedy Carter | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22 |
| Chelsea Gray | 9 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| Jewell Loyd | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
Dream prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Dream:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allisha Gray | 18 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33 |
| Angel Reese | 14 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 43 |
| Naz Hillmon | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 30 |
| Jordin Canada | 11 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| Te-Hina Paopao | 9 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
Aces vs. Dream game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Dream and Aces at State Farm Arena is scheduled to commence at 1:30 PM ET.
- Who: Las Vegas Aces vs. Atlanta Dream
- Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026
- Time: 1:30 PM ET/10:30AM PT
- Venue: State Farm Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Dream in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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