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Read Article WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, May 17, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of WNBA slate on 5/17.
Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, May 17, 2026—are live with the Pacers' Kelsey Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.
Mitchell, Dearica Hamby and Natisha Hiedeman lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
WNBA first basket predictions tonight (May 17, 2026)
| Player (Team) | FB Probability |
|---|---|
| Kelsey Mitchell (Fever) | 14.3% |
| Dearica Hamby (Sparks) | 14.0% |
| Natisha Hiedeman (Storm) | 12.8% |
| Kamilla Cardoso (Sky) | 12.4% |
| Marina Mabrey (Tempo) | 12.2% |
| Courtney Williams (Lynx) | 12.1% |
| Rickea Jackson (Sky) | 11.3% |
| Natasha Howard (Lynx) | 11.2% |
| Laura Juskaite (Tempo) | 11.0% |
| Flau'jae Johnson (Storm) | 11.0% |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith (Sky) | 10.8% |
| Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks) | 10.8% |
| Caitlin Clark (Fever) | 10.8% |
| Aliyah Boston (Fever) | 10.1% |
| Kelsey Plum (Sparks) | 10.1% |
| Brittney Sykes (Tempo) | 9.4% |
| Kayla McBride (Lynx) | 9.4% |
| Olivia Miles (Lynx) | 9.3% |
| Maria Conde (Tempo) | 9.3% |
| Jade Melbourne (Storm) | 9.0% |
| Lexie Brown (Storm) | 9.0% |
| Stefanie Dolson (Storm) | 8.3% |
| Nyara Sabally (Tempo) | 8.1% |
| Nia Coffey (Lynx) | 8.1% |
| Rae Burrell (Sparks) | 7.9% |
| Gabriela Jaquez (Sky) | 7.7% |
| Jacy Sheldon (Sky) | 7.7% |
| Sophie Cunningham (Fever) | 7.6% |
| Erica Wheeler (Sparks) | 7.2% |
| Monique Billings (Fever) | 7.2% |
WNBA first basket picks today (May 17, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natisha Hiedeman | Storm | 3.7% | +1000 | 12.8% |
| Courtney Williams | Lynx | 2.1% | +900 | 12.1% |
| Rae Burrell | Sparks | 1.2% | +1400 | 7.9% |
| Sophie Cunningham | Fever | 1.0% | +1400 | 7.6% |
| Erica Wheeler | Sparks | 0.6% | +1400 | 7.2% |
| Natasha Howard | Lynx | 0.1% | +800 | 11.2% |
| Jacy Sheldon | Sky | 0.0% | +1200 | 7.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/17.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, May 17, 2026, Kelsey Mitchell, Dearica Hamby and Natisha Hiedeman lead our first basket projections, with Hiedeman shaping as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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