Lakers vs. Mavericks: Three ways to back Luka Dončić in return to Dallas

Luka Dončić’s return to Dallas is no longer a novelty. It's now his second game facing the Mavericks in American Airlines Center, and it's been nearly a full year since he was traded.

But it’s still the kind of night that bends betting markets, and he's sure to be one of the most popular players on bettors' minds tonight.

Rather than leaning into the hype and betting based off the narrative, we’re turning to the data and using NBA predictions from the Dimers model to strip away the noise and identify where Dončić’s numbers point to real value, even in a matchup where motivation is being priced in from every angle.

The Dimers Pro model provides advanced simulations for every NBA game, now accessible with our brand-new Dimers App, identifying valuable betting opportunities where we say the sportsbooks are wrong, as well as in-depth player-level projections across points, rebounds, assists, and more, all of which we'll be using to find the best betting angles in Lakers vs. Mavericks.

That’s especially important in a game like this, where public perception can push lines beyond what the underlying data supports.

Below, we’ll break down three data-backed ways to bet on Luka Dončić tonight, using Dimers' best bets, props and NBA projections to find edges in a game where narratives will be loud, but numbers still matter most.

Three Ways to bet on Luka Dončić in Lakers vs. Mavericks on Saturday, January 24

We've identified bets at odds of -162, +112 and +488 on Luka Dončić, each using a different Dimers Pro tool to uncover the play.

Bet: Lakers to Win (-162 on BetRivers)

The most straightforward way to bet on Luka's return to Dallas is for him to guide the Lakers to a victory vs. the Mavericks, a bet our model projects with a 64.9% probability.

At the best available odds of -162, this presents a 3.0% edge, as our model says the odds should be no shorter than -185.

Further supporting this pick is that the bet falls in our model's current "Sweet Spot," which identifies the markets returning the most ROI this season. So far, NBA Moneyline bets in this edge range have returned a positive ROI of 16.5% over 138 similar bets.

Dončić is 3-0 vs. his former team since last season and the Dimers model predicts him to make it 4-0 after tonight and snap the Mavericks' four-game winning streak.

Bettors looking for shorter odds can entertain the Lakers to cover the -3.5 point spread, which our model projects with a 51.2% probability and aligns with our projected final score of 119-114, but we do not identify any particular betting value at current odds of -115.

Dimers' best bet in Lakers vs. Mavericks.

🏀 MORE: Lakers vs. Mavericks full game prediction

Bet: Luka Dončić over 7.5 rebounds (+112 on DraftKings)

For prop value on Luka vs. the Mavericks, look to his rebounds market, where our model identifies a 52.6% probability of Luka going over his line of 7.5 boards. Odds of +112 imply just a 47.2% probability, which gives us a 5.0% edge for strong value

We project Dončić for 8.0 rebounds, a mark he hit both games vs. Dallas last year, recording five rebounds in their previous meeting this season.

He's hit double-digit rebounds in back-to-back games and gets a good positional matchup tonight as the Mavericks allow the third-most rebounds to PG this season and who will be without two of their top three rebounders this season with Anthony Davis and Daniel Gafford out.

📲 The Dimers App is Here! Live NOW for both iOS and Android

Bet: Luka Dončić to get a triple double (+488 on DraftKings)

The last bet we're looking at is a longer odds play, but one that sets up for a potentially big payout if Luka can stuff the stat sheet.

Projected for 34.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.5 assists, Luke falls into what we consider "triple double threat" territory, within two rebounds and/or assists of a triple double.

He's got five so far this season, recording one two games ago and coming up two assists shy in his most recent outing.

He reached 11 assists in his first game vs. Dallas this year, and just one full assist over our model's projection will get us to double-digits.

Projected stats from the Dimers Pro NBA projections Hub.

🏀 MORE: Player Projections for every player in Lakers vs. Mavericks

Dimers' NBA betting resources for the 2025-26 season

• NBA Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every NBA matchup, every day.
• NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
• NBA Finals Odds: Who will win the championship?
• Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NBA Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.