Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Odds, NFL Picks - Divisional Round [2024]

The Buffalo Bills will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 6:30PM ET.

Dimers.com's in-depth betting preview for Sunday's Chiefs vs. Bills matchup includes the latest betting odds, as well as our predictions and picks for the game.

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction: Model Projects Win For The Bills

We have used innovative machine learning and statistics to simulate the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Chiefs and Bills 10,000 times, in keeping with our coverage of NFL predictions.

Our famous predictive analytics model currently gives the Bills a 59% chance of defeating the Chiefs, and our predicted final score has the Bills winning 23-21.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and both the Chiefs and Bills have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 45.5-point Over/Under also has a 55% chance of going under.

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Chiefs vs. Bills Odds

We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Chiefs	Bills
Spread	+2.5 (-105)	-2.5 (-112)
Moneyline	+128	-148
Total	o45.5 (-110)	u45.5 (-105)

• The Bills are -2.5 favorites versus the Chiefs, with -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook the best odds currently available.
• For the underdog Chiefs (+2.5) to cover the spread, BetMGM Sportsbook has the best odds currently on offer at -105.
• DraftKings currently has the best moneyline odds for the Bills at -148. That means you can risk $148 to win $100 for a total payout of $248 if they get the W.
• FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Chiefs at +128, where you can bet $100 to profit $128, earning a total payout of $228 if they win.
• The Over/Under sits at 45.5 with DraftKings, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -110, while FanDuel currently has the best odds for the Under at -105.

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

As always, check out the sportsbooks you can bet with in your state for the best NFL odds and lines.

Chiefs vs. Bills Picks

By comparing our predictions to the odds listed above, we have identified the best betting picks to place on this game:

Bet Type	Our Pick	Best Odds
Spread	Chiefs +2.5	-105
Moneyline	Bills	-148
Total	Under 45.5	-105

Dimers' NFL best bets are based on world-class modeling and wagering expertise to serve you the best possible plays every week of the season.

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Chiefs vs. Bills TD Scorers

Who will score the first touchdown in Chiefs vs. Bills?

According to our model, Buffalo's Josh Allen is most likely to score the first touchdown in Chiefs vs. Bills.

Our projections give Allen a 19.7% chance of scoring the first TD at Highmark Stadium, while the Bills QB is a 68.0% chance of reaching the end zone at any point in the game.

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	First TD Probability
Isiah Pacheco	13.5%
Travis Kelce	8.5%
Rashee Rice	8.5%
Mecole Hardman	4.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	4.3%

Buffalo Bills

Player	First TD Probability
Josh Allen	19.7%
James Cook	12.3%
Stefon Diggs	8.0%
Dalton Kincaid	4.4%
Dawson Knox	2.3%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Isiah Pacheco	53.5%
Travis Kelce	38.4%
Rashee Rice	38.1%
Mecole Hardman	22.8%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	20.6%

Buffalo Bills

Player	Anytime TD Probability
Josh Allen	68.0%
James Cook	49.7%
Stefon Diggs	35.7%
Dalton Kincaid	21.0%
Dawson Knox	11.3%

Chiefs vs Bills Player Props

Here, you will find detailed projections for all of the key offensive players from the Chiefs and Bills, including passing, rushing and receiving yards.

Chiefs vs. Bills Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected to have a big game with 312 passing yards, while the Bills' Josh Allen is expected to throw for 226 yards.

Player	Proj. Pass Yards
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	312 yds
Josh Allen (BUF)	226 yds

Chiefs Rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
Isiah Pacheco	79 yds
Patrick Mahomes	16 yds
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	15 yds

Bills Rushing

Player	Proj. Rush Yards
James Cook	82 yds
Josh Allen	49 yds
Ty Johnson	21 yds

Chiefs Receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Rashee Rice	74 yds
Travis Kelce	67 yds
Isiah Pacheco	22 yds
Mecole Hardman	19 yds
Noah Gray	19 yds

Bills Receiving

Player	Proj. Rec. Yards
Stefon Diggs	78 yds
Dalton Kincaid	49 yds
Khalil Shakir	48 yds
James Cook	24 yds
Trent Sherfield	15 yds

Remember, our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for any changes to our betting analysis before the Chiefs vs. Bills on Sunday January 21, 2024.

Chiefs vs. Bills Game Information

The NFL Week 20 matchup between the Bills and Chiefs at Highmark Stadium is scheduled to commence at 6:30PM ET.

• Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
• Date: Sunday January 21, 2024
• Time: 6:30PM ET / 3:30PM PT
• Venue: Highmark Stadium

Our full coverage of Chiefs vs. Bills includes pregame predictions, betting picks, and live win probabilities.

How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Bills

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Conclusion

This preview article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on this week's Chiefs vs. Bills matchup, and automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting. Human editing and quality control are performed to ensure the content meets our editorial guidelines.

Our predictions are based on 10,000 simulations per game, using reliable and up-to-date data sources and analytical methods. While these Chiefs vs. Bills picks can help you make informed decisions, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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