Jack Draper vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds, Picks for ATP Italian Open 2025

Jack Draper and Carlos Alcaraz will lock horns in the quarterfinals of the ATP Italian Open event on Wednesday.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model (see Dimers Pro for full access) projects Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the match.

"We have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Draper-Alcaraz match 10,000 times," said Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn.

"With the latest updates and numerous other variables, we estimate Carlos Alcaraz' chance of winning at 65%, with Jack Draper at 35%."

For expanded analysis of Wednesday's match, including best bets and picks, visit our interactive Draper vs. Alcaraz predictions page.

Draper vs. Alcaraz Prediction: Who Will Win and Advance to the Semifinals?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Draper-Alcaraz men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Alcaraz a 65% chance of winning against Draper at the ATP Italian Open tournament.

Additionally, Alcaraz has a 61% chance of winning the first set, according to our model.

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Jack Draper vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Draper	Alcaraz
Moneyline	+240	-303
First Set	+175	-227

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

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Draper vs. Alcaraz Picks and Best Bets

Our model's biggest edge in today's Draper vs. Alcaraz match is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, matched against the latest odds, reveal the best tennis picks and tennis best bets for every match throughout the year.

Unlimited access to our full set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Draper vs. Alcaraz Updates and Essential Details

The ATP Italian Open match between Jack Draper and Carlos Alcaraz is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 9:00AM ET.

• Who: Jack Draper vs. Carlos Alcaraz
• Date: Wednesday, May 14, 2025
• Approx. Time: 9:00AM ET/6:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Rome, Italy Men's Singles 2025
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Dimers.com's full preview of Wednesday's Draper vs. Alcaraz match includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Jack Draper vs. Carlos Alcaraz picks, be sure to check out the latest tennis predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

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• Explore where sports odds come from and how they’re applied to tennis matches
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• Improve your chances with proven sports betting strategies that apply to tennis and more

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat Jack Draper at the ATP Italian Open tournament.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Draper vs. Alcaraz insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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