How Do Tennis Odds Work?

Most of us have seen sports odds before and understand why one tennis player is favored and the other is a dog, but let's take a look at how the odds work too.

Tennis betting has many popular options, particularly the moneyline and over/under options. There are prop bets too, which allow you to wager on almost anything which can occur in a tennis match. 

Vegas usually sets the standard and determines tennis odds for sportsbooks across the United States. Wanting to know the why behind the odds you see in our Tennis Bet Hub?

All of the answers are here for you, right now!

How are tennis odds determined?

The function of tennis odds making isn’t to truly represent the probability of an outcome occurring. Vegas and sportsbooks actually put forth certain odds to make a profit and in the hopes of attracting bettors to both sides (eg. either player). 

Ultimately, oddsmakers are on the same team as the sportsbooks. They are trying to reduce the risk of sportsbooks losing large. 

That’s why books hate when a big favorite wins, because they lose big. WTA and ATP betting odds certainly aren’t determined on the gut feel of a sports predicting genius. 

Sports statisticians, analysts and mathematicians are heavily involved in the odds you see on a sportsbook’s site and app. The X’s and O’s of sports odds involve an examination of the wider betting market, statistics and data. 

In the case of tennis moneyline and spread bets, odds makers will look at previous matchups, form, injuries, weather forecasts, even a player’s strengths and weaknesses to determine the odds. It isn’t that simple of course, algorithms and other nerdy stuff go into it, but this gives you an idea. 

In other words, it’s not too different to Dimers’ predictive analytics model where 10,000 simulations of every tennis match are conducted, based on the variables above, all to give you an unrivalled edge before you make that winning play.

MORE: How to Bet on Tennis

Why are tennis odds not real probabilities?

Like any business, sportsbooks want to make a profit. They don’t sell clothes or shoes, but they do sell odds to you, the bettor. How do they profit? Let’s look at the below.

Example:

  • Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic — Australian Open Quarter-Final
  • Djokovic  -250 (implied probability of 71.43%)
  • Nadal  +200 (implied probability = 33.33%)

 

For the astute readers, you've already noticed those percentages don’t add up. Well, they do, just not to 100%. The sum of the two percentages above equal 104.76%. So, how can a tennis match have an implied probability of 104%?

It can’t, really. The extra 4% is the profit margin this sportsbook is taking home. With such a strategy, implemented worldwide, this is how a sportsbook will make a profit over time.

Favorites lose = Sportsbooks win

When there’s a big upset during the tennis season, sportsbooks rejoice. This is because most of the money is heavily poured on the favorite, meaning the sportsbook takes all of it home. Big favorites losing is a sportsbooks’ golden chariot.

Now that you know where odds come from, find the best ATP and WTA betting picks with Dimers. We have exclusive promo codes for each of the biggest and most secure sportsbooks.

MORE: What Sports Can I Bet On?

Why do sportsbooks have similar odds?

Sports betting is going gangbusters on a global scale. Surprisingly, tennis betting is far more advanced in places like Australia, United Kingdom and Asia, while it's just getting started in America, Vegas aside.

Due to the globalization of tennis betting it isn’t uncommon for sportsbooks to simply copy the odds of other books. This method is cost effective and they end up with the same odds without all the data and betting analytics research. 

We don’t know which books copy others but we do know how you can find the best odds for all sports in the United States.

MORE: How to Live Bet on Tennis

How to take advantage of tennis odds

Sportsbooks look to make money off your bets, and set odds in such a way to favor their interests. So, how do we fight back and win money from sports betting?

The answer is simple — take advantage of the edge.

What is the edge, you ask? 

This is where the probability of an event occurring is more likely than what's indicated by odds than the sportsbook has set. We identify edges in our Bet Hub, which show when our predictive analytics model thinks a tennis player has a much better chance of winning than the sportsbook's think.

Putting our data on your side can pay real dividends, as it helps give you an objective viewpoint and remove some of your own betting bias (like us, you're probably human after all).

Taking bets with edge gives you a better chance of being a successful gambler long-term. Of course, the higher the edge, the better. While you’re not guaranteed a win by taking the edge (they occur as frequently on underdogs), taking picks with an edge gives you a greater chance of being profitable into the future. This helps you to become a more successful tennis bettor.

For every major sports match including tennis, NFL, College Hoops, NBA and more, Dimers has the edge and exclusive promotional codes waiting for you.

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