Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds, NFL Picks - Week 16 [2023]

Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds, NFL Picks - Week 16 [2023]

The Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts will meet in Week 16 of the NFL season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, starting at 1:00PM ET.'s in-depth betting preview for Sunday's Colts vs. Falcons matchup includes the latest betting odds, as well as our predictions and picks for the game.

Colts vs. Falcons Prediction: Who Will Win, Cover the Spread

We have used powerful machine learning and statistics to simulate the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Colts and Falcons 10,000 times, in line with our coverage of NFL predictions.

Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Falcons a 59% chance of defeating the Colts in Week 16 of the NFL season, and our predicted final score has the Falcons winning 23-21.

According to our model, the Colts (+3) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the 44-point Over/Under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

This Indianapolis vs. Atlanta betting preview is sponsored by Bet365, which has a Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets offer for new customers.

Colts vs. Falcons Odds

We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type Colts Falcons
Spread +3 (-115) -3 (-105)
Moneyline +132 -145
Total o44 (-115) u44 (-105)
  • The Falcons are -3 favorites versus the Colts, with -105 at DraftKings Sportsbook the best odds currently available.
  • For the underdog Colts (+3) to cover the spread, DraftKings also has the best odds currently on offer at -115.
  • BetMGM Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Falcons at -145, which means you can risk $145 to win $100 for a total payout of $245 if they get the W.
  • Meanwhile, FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the best moneyline odds for the Colts at +132, where you can bet $100 to profit $132, earning a total payout of $232 if they win.
  • The Over/Under for total points scored is set at 44 with DraftKings, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -115, as well as the best odds for the Under at -105.

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

As always, make sure you check the sports betting sites you have access to in your state for the best NFL odds and lines.

Colts vs. Falcons Picks

By comparing our predictions to the odds listed above, we have determined the best betting picks for this game:

Bet Type Our Pick Best Odds
Spread Colts +3 -115
Moneyline Falcons -145
Total Under 44 -105


Our NFL best bets are based on detailed simulations and gambling intelligence to serve you the best possible plays every week of the season.

Colts vs. Falcons TD Scorers

Who will score the first touchdown in Colts vs. Falcons?

According to our model, Atlanta's Bijan Robinson is most likely to score the first TD in Colts vs. Falcons.

Our projections give Robinson a 12.1% chance of scoring the first TD at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Falcons RB is a 49.1% chance of reaching the end zone at any point in the game.

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Indianapolis Colts

Player First TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor 10.6%
Josh Downs 7.5%
Alec Pierce 6.3%
D.J. Montgomery 3.5%
Kylen Granson 3.5%

Atlanta Falcons

Player First TD Probability
Bijan Robinson 12.1%
Drake London 9.0%
Tyler Allgeier 7.3%
Cordarrelle Patterson 5.9%
Kyle Pitts 5.4%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Indianapolis Colts

Player Anytime TD Probability
Jonathan Taylor 44.6%
Josh Downs 32.5%
Alec Pierce 29.4%
D.J. Montgomery 17.0%
Kylen Granson 16.7%

Atlanta Falcons

Player Anytime TD Probability
Bijan Robinson 49.1%
Drake London 38.2%
Tyler Allgeier 31.3%
Cordarrelle Patterson 26.3%
Kyle Pitts 25.6%

Colts vs Falcons Player Props

Here, you will find detailed projections for all of the key offensive players from the Colts and Falcons, including passing, rushing and receiving yards.

Colts vs. Falcons Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Colts' Gardner Minshew is projected for 248 passing yards, while the Falcons' Taylor Heinicke is expected to throw for 232 yards.

Player Proj. Pass Yards
Gardner Minshew (IND) 248 yds
Taylor Heinicke (ATL) 232 yds

Colts Rushing

Player Proj. Rush Yards
Jonathan Taylor 84 yds
Trey Sermon 15 yds
Gardner Minshew 9 yds

Falcons Rushing

Player Proj. Rush Yards
Bijan Robinson 59 yds
Tyler Allgeier 41 yds
Cordarrelle Patterson 17 yds

Colts Receiving

Player Proj. Rec. Yards
Josh Downs 60 yds
Alec Pierce 52 yds
D.J. Montgomery 32 yds
Jonathan Taylor 29 yds
Kylen Granson 20 yds

Falcons Receiving

Player Proj. Rec. Yards
Drake London 56 yds
Kyle Pitts 35 yds
Bijan Robinson 24 yds
Jonnu Smith 21 yds
Scott Miller 20 yds

Remember, our model updates often, so keep an eye on this article for any changes to our betting insights before the Colts vs. Falcons on Sunday December 24, 2023.

Colts vs. Falcons Game Information

The NFL Week 16 game between the Falcons and Colts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.


Our full coverage of Colts vs. Falcons includes pregame predictions, betting picks, and live win probabilities.

How to Bet on Colts vs. Falcons

Ready to join an online sportsbook and start betting on the NFL now? We've listed the best available sign-up offers for each legal betting state, including DraftKings Sportsbook, where you get $200 in bonus bets for signing up and bettting $5 on Indianapolis vs. Atlanta.


This preview article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on Colts vs. Falcons Week 14 game, and automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting. Human editing and quality control are performed to ensure the content meets our editorial standards.

Our predictions are made thanks to 10,000 simulations per game, using reliable and up-to-date data sources and analytical methods. While our Colts vs. Falcons predictions can help you make informed decisions, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your bankroll effectively.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial arrangement with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee at no additional cost to you.

More on NFL

Stay up-to-date with the latest NFL betting news and our analytics-driven NFL picks and parlays all season long. Plus, our Super Bowl odds give you the most up-to-date projections and the best available odds on the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC, and each division.

Ryan Leaver
Senior Sports and Sports Betting Editor

Ryan Leaver has long been entrenched in the world of sports and sports betting, now specializing in the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. His passion shines through in his detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles for both the NBA and NFL, along with his sharp prop bets for college football and insightful best bets for college basketball. Ryan’s expertise also extends to soccer, where he frequently offers practical betting tips and highlights the bets of the day. 

Known for his keen eye for valuable betting promos, Ryan adeptly guides bettors toward opportunities that enhance their wagering experiences. Collaborating often with DimersBOT, his articles are meticulously researched and offer savvy betting advice, making him a trusted source for sports bettors.

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