How to Bet on Tiger Woods’ 2024 Debut at the Genesis Invitational

For the better part of the last 30 years, there is no name more synonymous with professional golf than Tiger Woods, from winning his first major at the Masters at just 21 years old to winning it for the fifth time in 2019 after a decade-long drought.

Injuries and performance have hampered the later years of his career, especially in the last five, during which he’s appeared in just 15 PGA TOUR events total since his 2019 Masters win and hasn’t appeared in an official event since the Masters last April.

Nevertheless, Tiger is still here and he’s making his 2024 debut this weekend at the Genesis Invitational, hosted at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, CA. As the tournament host and fresh off announcing his new apparel brand “Sun Day Red,” he’ll be a popular bet and a favorite to watch, especially if he makes the cut in this field of 71. He’s got veteran caddie Lance Bennett on the bag.

So, how should you bet on Tiger Woods this weekend? Our advanced predictive analytics model has simulated the Genesis Invitational 1000s of times to identify the win and placement probabilities for all 71 participants, including Tiger. We’ve identified the best bets for outright winners and Top 5, 10 and 20 finishes, which you can read here, but in this article, we’ll break down how DimersBOT predicts Tiger will fare in his 2024 debut.

Things to Know Before the Genesis Invitational

First, some background information on this long-time TOUR event:

• This is the 98^th edition of the Genesis Invitational, which has been held at Riviera Country Club since 1973
• The course is a Par 71 that plays 7,322 yards
• This field will feature just 71 players competing for a $20,000,000 purse with a $4M payout to the winner
• A 36-hole cut will advance the top 50 golfers (including ties), plus any golfer within 10 strokes of the leader
• 15 past Major champions will take part and the only players absent from the OWGR Top 25 are recent LIV defectors Jon Rahm (last year’s champ) and Tyrrell Hatton

How You Can Bet on Tiger Woods at 2024 Genesis Invitational

There are three main markets to bet on Tiger Woods at the Genesis Invitational that we have data for – to win the tournament, to place Top 5, 10 or 20 and in the head-to-head market against the golfer he’ll be matched up with on the sportsbook. Below, we’ll look at the odds for each and what our model says about each bet.

Tiger Woods to Win the 2024 Genesis Invitational

Surely the most popular bet on Tiger this weekend will be for him to win the tournament at Riviera. He hasn’t won an official PGA event since the ZOZO Championship in the 2019-20 season. The true challenge will be for him to make it through the weekend, as he’ll need to make the cut and complete all four rounds, something he’s failed to do in four of his last nine events (2 WD, 2 MC).

Unfortunately DimersBOT doesn’t see a (literally) against all odds scenario for Woods this weekend, giving him a nominal .1% chance of winning. His odds of +15000 (150 to 1) imply a 0.66% probability. While that might not seem like much, it’s a staggering difference in the odds, as 0.1% implies insane odds of +90000. (900 to 1). Even at 150:1 you’re not getting fair odds on Tiger.

However, if he were to have even a decent Round 1 and Round 2, his odds would drop dramatically, so while he’s not a play as far as getting fair value, you could do much worse for a couple dollars.

Tiger Woods to Finish Top 5 at the Genesis Invitational

For Tiger Woods to secure a Top 5 finish at Riviera Country Club will take nearly just as good of a performance as it will take to win. He’ll need to be nearly perfect to win it all but finishing Top 5 doesn’t leave much room for error in this talented field, either.

He gets a stronger probability here, though it still clocks in under 1%, 0.9% to be exact. His odds of +2200 are robbery here, as they imply a 4.4% chance. For comparison, that means his odds should truly be closer to +10000. And when you consider that the books are saying he’s 150:1 to win it all but just 22:1 to finish Top 5, you can see they’re taxing you here. Just look at the odds of the golfers around him with higher probabilities and you can see the difference.

Tiger Woods to Finish Top 10 at the Genesis Invitational

Tiger clocks in at +900 to secure a Top 10 finish this weekend, implying a probability of 10% while our model is giving him just a 3.1% chance. It feels closer than the others when you think about a 7% difference, but we have guys like Brendon Todd and Andrew Putnam with an 11% probability of a top 10 finish who are also priced at +900. It might not be as exciting to bet on Todd and Putnam as it is to bet on Tiger, but it’s the smarter play for sure in this market.

Tiger Woods to Finish Top 20 at the Genesis Invitational

We should start off by saying virtually nobody is priced fairly in the Top 20 market. It’s hard to find a play outside of the +280 to +350 range without scraping the bottom of the odds table, but that doesn’t mean we should be jumping at a poorly priced bet.

Woods gets a 9.5% probability and +350 odds to finish Top 20 and while that sounds enticing, it really means his odds should be closer to +1000. This feels like the “safest” market to be betting on Tiger if you’re backing him to put in a solid performance, but it can’t be justified at +350 odds. If you absolutely must have some placement action on Tiger, consider parlaying him with a couple other golfers to finish Top 30 and Top 40 as well to get some better odds.

Tiger Woods to beat Justin Thomas or Gary Woodland Head-to-Head

The books are hesitant to offer too many matchup and group options for betting on Tiger Woods at the Genesis Invitational and we’ll let you in on a secret…they don’t think he will perform well. His short odds in the above markets should be seen as an indicator that he’s a popular bet and they want to limit their risk due to the high exposure.

On DraftKings, you’ll find him in a group with Justin Thomas and Gary Woodland for Round 1 only. Again, this is likely because they don’t expect him to make the cut (he’s minus odds to miss at -110) and it’s too much liability for them if they let us bet against Tiger too much.

As you can see above via our free Head-to-Head Matchup Predictor, Tiger gets a hair under 30% probability to beat Justin Thomas in Round 1, with a 13.4% chance of a tie. At +180, Tiger’s odds imply a 35.7% chance of beating Thomas. It’s not quite the price we’d like to see (+240), but given that there is no option for a tie and that would rule the bet a push, you could do worse here. It’s a solid pick to use DraftKings’ daily 50% boostson.

It's a much closer battle between Tiger and Gary Woodland, the third member of this group. Unfortunately, Dimers’ 40% probability for Tiger should give us odds of +150, but he’s actually favored over Woodland at -130. This is in the wrong direction and not a bet worth taking based on our model’s prediction.

Should you Bet on Tiger Woods at the 2024 Genesis Invitational?

Based on our analysis, there isn’t a very favorable market for betting on Tiger Woods this weekend. It’s a great story and will undoubtedly be fun to watch, but we want to make smart bets, not ones that we don’t believe in. However, as we said, you could do worse than dropping a couple dollars on Tiger to win the tournament. Best case, you win a +15000 bet and if he doesn’t even decent, you could be looking at a cashout on Day 3 if you think he won’t go the distance.

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