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Rockets vs. Lakers prediction: Houston to win, Luka Doncic projected for 33 points in Thursday's NBA game [12/25/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers predictions for NBA Thursday.
NBA action continues on Christmas Day at 8:00 PM ET as the Houston Rockets lock horns with the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Rockets as the most likely winner of the Rockets vs. Lakers game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Lakers lineup will feature stars like Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves, while the Rockets will be led by Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.
Doncic is expected to deliver a standout performance with a projected 33 points and 4 threes.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Rockets vs. Lakers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and Lakers 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Rockets a 56% chance of defeating the Lakers. Our predicted final score has the Rockets winning 116-114.
According to our model, the Lakers (+2.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 231.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Rockets vs. Lakers odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rockets | Lakers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-108) | +2.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -135 | +120 |
| Total | o231.5 (-110) | u231.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rockets vs. Lakers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lakers +2.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Rockets | -135 |
| Total | Under 231.5 | -110 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lakers +2.5 at the spread.
Rockets vs. Lakers player props
NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Thursday's Rockets vs. Lakers matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Kevin Durant is expected to lead the Rockets with 28 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, while Luka Doncic is projected to have 33 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists for the Lakers.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Rockets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Rockets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 28 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 48 |
| Alperen Sengun | 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 44 |
| Amen Thompson | 19 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 42 |
| Jabari Smith | 17 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 33 |
| Reed Sheppard | 13 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 28 |
Lakers prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lakers:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 33 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 63 |
| LeBron James | 23 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 47 |
| Austin Reaves | 18 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 34 |
| Deandre Ayton | 13 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 29 |
| Rui Hachimura | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
Rockets vs. Lakers game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Lakers and Rockets at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Rockets, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Lakers on Christmas Day, with Luka Doncic projected for a game-high 63 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Rockets vs. Lakers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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