May 18, 2026
MLB picks today: Monday's MLB best bets include Giants vs. Diamondbacks play [5/18/2026]
Read Article Astros vs. Twins prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [5/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins predictions for MLB Monday.
The Minnesota Twins will take on the Houston Astros, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Target Field on Monday, starting at 7:40 PM ET.
Kendry Rojas (1-0, 2.46 ERA) will be on the bump for the Twins, while the Astros will counter with Tatsuya Imai (1-1, 9.24 ERA).
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Twins a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's Astros vs. Twins matchup, including best bets and picks.
Astros vs. Twins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB game between the Astros and Twins, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Twins a 51% chance of beating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 9.5 runs has a 51% chance of going over.
Astros vs. Twins odds [5/18/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Astros | Twins |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-220) | -1.5 (+165) |
| Moneyline | -102 | -116 |
| Total | o9.5 (+100) | u9.5 (-114) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Astros vs. Twins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Twins -1.5 | +165 |
| Moneyline | Astros | -102 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | +100 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Astros vs. Twins game-day updates and essential details
Monday's MLB action between the Twins and Astros at Target Field is scheduled to begin at 7:40 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
- Date: Monday, May 18, 2026
- Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
- Venue: Target Field
Conclusion
We predict the Twins, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Monday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Continue reading with Dimers Pro
Join now to unlock this article and get full access to our predictions and betting tools. Cancel anytime.
$0 for 3 days
then $14.99/week
Already a Pro member? Log in
New here? See everything Pro includes
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure
